NFL Spread and O/U Picks: Hunter's Week 4 Best Bets
I finally bet some overs in Week 3 that got me into the win column. After going after Geno’s rough outing in my last article, we went back to the well for more Raider game overs. However, in this case, it was Marcus Mariota leading his squad to almost single-handedly getting us to the game total over by themselves. Across the league, we saw a surprising amount of special teams plays making a difference, especially in the blocked field goal department. Rams backers saw a great opportunity for an outright win turn into somehow losing +3.5 bets. The Jets also returned a blocked field goal to take a late lead, but Tampa Bay still had time on the clock to take back a game that was rightly theirs. The Browns took a late interception and a blocked field goal, raising some doubt in my mind that a U16.5 team total would cover the spread after zero points with under 4 minutes left in the game.
For me, the changes made from Week 3 to Week 4 get a little complex. I generally start taking in 2025 data on a player level at a 25% weight compared to 2024 data. Heading into Week 4, I have increased the 2025 grade weighting to between 33% and 40%, pending the number of coaching changes made on each team.
Week 3 recap: Started hot in the early slate, but got a reverse sweep in the afternoon slate to go 4-5 for a second straight week, losing 2.87 units in the process.
2025 Year to Date:
- Sides: 4-5 -1.03 Units
- Totals: 9-9 -3.47 Units
- Overall: 13-14 -4.51 Units
2025 NFL Week 4 Sides and Totals
