Jake's Week 14 NFL Player Prop Bets

Every week, I’ll be posting a few of my favorite plays in this article with brief write-ups of each play. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward.

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Week 13: 4-1, +$286

Overall: 47-41, -$56

-0.53% ROI



Assumes betting to win $100 on a minus odds prop and risking $100 on a plus odds prop

Week 13 Recap

It feels good to have a positive week, finally, and we had some easy winners. The Cowboys/Chiefs game shot out as I had expected, so Dak threw 39 times, cashing the over 34.5 pass attempts, and with the elevated passing volume and plays, CeeDee soared past the yardage total of 79.5 and had 112 yards. Kirk u2.5 recs was as sweat-free as possible, as he did not even see a target. Our last win was Rachaad White u34.5 R+R. This was another relatively sweat-free bet. Bucky returned and went back to his workhorse ways on the ground, but Rachaad ran hot on only 13 routes for three catches for 22 yards, making this bet a bit sweaty.

Lastly, we had our only loss, Goedert's o33.5 receiving yards. I played Goedert over after DeVonta had logged back-to-back DNP's, but I knew there was still a good chance he would play. CHI had been beaten by opposing TEs in previous weeks and were without all three of their starting LBs, but Philly's offensive struggles continued, and Goedert came up short. Here's to hoping the positive weeks start to compound!

Week 14 Bets

CeeDee Lamb OVER 5.5 Receptions

CeeDee is averaging over 10 targets per game this season. In three of the four games CeeDee has played in when the Cowboys were underdogs, he caught seven balls in three of them (W1 vs PHI, W8 vs DEN, and W13 vs KC). This Detroit/Dallas game has the highest total of the week at 54.5, and Detroit's D has been easier to beat through the air than on the ground, setting up an explosion spot for Dallas' elite passing offense.

Josh Allen OVER 27.5 Pass Attempts

The Bills Bengals game checks in with a 53.5 point total, and the Bills are favored by 5.5 points. It's shocking to see a QB with a pass attempts line this low, with a total this high, and not even home touchdown favorites. The Bills had the third-lowest PROE of any team in Week 13, as James Cook ran 32 times for 144 yards and Ray Davis ran 9 times for 62. But this attempt number for Allen is an overreaction. On the season, the Bengals' games rank third in total plays, and last week against the Ravens, they ran a whopping 92 offensive plays! We get a matchup here with two bad defenses and two great Quarterbacks, and I'm banking on the Bengals being able to push the Bills hard enough to force Josh to drop back more than expected. There is also a chance Kincaid returns for Buffalo, which should help boost this pass game.

J.J. McCarthy OVER 15.5 Pass Completions

Washington's defense is nearly bottom five in completion percentage allowed at 67.56% and are dead last in EPA per drop back allowed. Only one QB didn't clear 15.5 pass completions, and that was Tua, who only attempted 20 passes. Washington's offense in Weeks 9-11 posted its three lowest PROE, but out of the bye with McLaurin back, they were back to playing fast and throwing the ball, which should bode well for opposing teams' ability to run plenty of plays. JJ has been nothing short of a disaster and is coming off another injury in his brief career. Still, this Washington defense has been ripped to shreds all season, and the Washington offense has shown it can put up points and play fast, even with MarioTAH at QB.

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