Travis Kelce Can Still Be a Viable Fantasy Option in 2025

“The tragedy that night wasn’t that Ali couldn’t still box. He could. The tragedy was that he still thought he was Ali.”

This quote, spoken by the character Paul Lewiston to Denny Crane in “Boston Legal,” describes what happens when someone, once great in their field, continues in that field but is no longer capable of the high-performing feats of their heyday. In 2024, Travis Kelce was still a darn good tight end, especially in fantasy football. He just wasn’t the Travis Kelce we have come to expect.

Kelce may never return to his peak, and with Father Time being undefeated, he almost certainly won’t. But he can still be a valuable fantasy contributor in 2025.

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Not Bad for a Down Year, but Still a Down Year

There are good tight ends throughout history who would give body parts to have enjoyed the type of “down year” Kelce had in 2024. He ranked third in targets and receptions, reeling in 97 of his 133 looks. Kelce has seven seasons with at least 90 receptions, the second most of all time. Larry Fitzgerald has eight. Kelce finished with 823 yards and only three touchdowns, both career lows, despite leading all tight ends with 26 red zone targets. All told, Kelce averaged 9.2 Half-PPR points per game, good enough for TE8 in points per game.

A strong case can be made that Kelce’s numbers were only as good as they were because of injuries in the Chiefs' receiving corps. Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown both missed significant time, and it was Rice’s absence that allowed Kelce to put up the numbers he did. In the first four games of the season, when Rice was on the side, Kelce averaged 5.3 targets per game, converting these opportunities into 3.8 receptions and 39.5 yards, bringing him 5.9 Half-PPR points. Once Rice was lost for the year, Kelce’s numbers improved to 9.3, 6.8, 55.4, and 10.3.

The Patrick Mahomes to Kelce link-up has been one of the great fantasy money makers of the last half-decade, with Mahomes averaging a solid 8.50 adjusted yards per attempt whenever he looked Kelce’s way. But this solid foundation began to show cracks last year, with Mahomes' AYA dropping to 5.31 when targeting his tight end. For reference, Mahomes' AYA was 9.13 when he targeted Rice. Rice’s return from injury, plus an absence of any news relating to a possible suspension, doesn’t seem to be great news for Kelce or his fantasy managers.

Situation Still Good

It's not all bad news for Kelce, it should be stressed. The Chiefs have, and if Andy Reid is calling the plays, will always be among the league’s pass-happiest teams. It’s who he is, after all. The Chiefs ranked seventh in neutral pass rate in 2024, passing on 57% of their offensive plays in a season in which they went 15-1 in games they tried in. (Let us wipe from our memory the Carson Wentz game in Week 18.) With no significant additions or upgrades to their ground game, save for a seventh-round selection in Brashard Smith and hope that Isiah Pacheco can return to his post-injury form, a Chiefs team facing the 6th hardest schedule according to Sharp Football should still pass the ball early and often. Even with Rice, Brown, and Xavier Worthy for company, Kelce should still have plenty of opportunities, especially with 149 vacated targets to be had among the Chiefs' pass catchers.

However, despite these trends, I do not believe Kelce will match his 8.3 targets per game from last season. Especially with Rice back in the fold, and the fact that Brown and Worthy averaged 7.5 and 5.7 targets per game when they were healthy. Kelce’s best hopes of retaining fantasy relevance will be if he can continue to command red zone looks, and if he can convert these into touchdowns, he could not in 2024.

Fantasy Outlook

Kelce’s current ADP over at Underdog seems to reflect his new reality, namely that he can be a useful tight end without the expectation of his dominating proceedings. He’s going off the board as the TE7, which isn’t a million miles away from our ranking of TE6. Big Red has indicated that Kelce’s snap share shouldn’t be too different from a season ago, which should mean that Kelce remains on the field a ton and will continue to see red zone looks. A player enjoying a high snap share in an offense that loves to pass the ball, going where Kelce is currently going in drafts, should return value. But the days of inking Kelce into the overall TE1 have almost certainly gone.

Kelce can still box. He’s just not Ali anymore.

The Bottom Line

• Kelce’s down season in 2024 was still good, but the return of other Chiefs receivers makes it unlikely he’ll repeat.

• Vacated targets, a tough schedule, and the Chiefs' love of the passing game should allow him to remain relevant, even if not at levels he has previously enjoyed.

• Better luck in converting red zone chances into touchdowns can keep Kelce in the very good tier of fantasy tight ends, just not the very top tier.