NFL Survivor Pool Strategy: 4 Things You Need to Know (2025)

Aug 26, 2025

Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

The 2025 NFL season is here, and that means it’s time to talk NFL survivor pool strategy. Survivor pools (also called knockout or eliminator pools) have become one of the most popular ways to play, but winning them takes more than just picking the “obvious” favorite each week.

At PoolGenius, we’ve spent over 10 years studying survivor pools and building tools that give players an edge. Our subscribers have already won more than $6.5 million in survivor pool prizes and over $10 million across all types of pools.

In this article, we’ll zero in on the 2025 season and highlight four key situations you need to keep in mind if you want to make the smartest NFL survivor picks this year.

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#1 - Week 1 Looks Like Another Challenging Start

It didn’t used to be quite this hard when starting NFL survivor pools. From 2012 to 2021, there were 17 total teams favored by at least nine points in Week 1, and they went 15-2.

Over the last three seasons, though, only one team has been favored by that much in Week 1: Baltimore over Houston in 2023. It looks like that trend will continue this year, as Denver is currently the biggest Week 1 favorite, ranging from -7.5 to -8 points.

That makes for yet another year where survivor players look to be in store for some nervous moments at the start.

Week 1 gives us five different teams that are favored by six points or more, but each presents a different challenge:

Do people avoid Cincinnati because of flashbacks to last year?
Will survivor players be willing to take Arizona on the road at New Orleans?
Can they justify using Philadelphia in the first game of the year when the defending champs could be valuable at a lot of different spots?
What about Washington in a division game against the New York Giants?

If you want to go beyond the top five favorites, no one else is currently favored by more than a field goal.

#2 - Buffalo’s Future Value Comes Early

The Buffalo Bills are our highest-rated team for 2025 in future value. The Bills have a very favorable schedule and are given the best odds at claiming the AFC top seed as a result.

The season begins with a showdown against Baltimore, but the future arrives very early when it comes to NFL survivor pools.

It’s going to be hard to resist picking Buffalo with the stretch that includes the following (with projected win odds):

Week 2: at New York Jets (79%)
Week 3: vs. Miami (80%)
Week 4: vs. New Orleans (88%)

That Week 4 spot against the Saints is our highest projected win odds for any game this season. So, using the Bills will likely be an attractive option in the first month. However, if you can hold them, they should present high EV opportunities later in the year when they will have low pick popularity and are unavailable to most entries.

#3 - Week 12 Could Be a Trap for the Unprepared

Several later weeks could differentiate the entries that plan things out well from those that don’t worry about saving teams at all. One that stands out as a potential trap week for the unprepared is Week 12. The top three favorites that week in our early projections are:

Baltimore (84%) vs. New York Jets
Detroit (81%) vs. New York Giants
Kansas City (77%) vs. Indianapolis

All three of those teams are going to have other tempting spots both that week and in the weeks that soon follow, so someone who hasn’t planned ahead to have one available could either be concentrated on a really popular pick (San Francisco vs. Carolina is an early candidate there) or on a far riskier pick.

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#4 - Plan Your Multiple-Pick Week Paths (New Feature)

At PoolGenius, we are excited to announce an upgrade to our Optimal Path Tool for 2025. Now, you can map out the best path through the season for a pool that requires more than one pick in certain weeks (designating up to three picks required in a given week).

We see all types of pools with our subscribers, many of them with unusual rules. You can now compare a pool that requires two picks in odd-numbered weeks with a standard one-pick-per-week pool.

For example, Philadelphia might look like a great pick in Week 8 (against the Giants), but if you need two picks for Week 15, that could tip the balance toward saving the Eagles for that spot against Las Vegas instead.

Using this tool can provide a great edge over your opponents, showing the overall path risk, which picks improve in certain weeks, and which types of teams you may need to pick to get through the season.

Your 2025 NFL Survivor Strategy Edge

While winning a survivor pool is hard and full of uncertainties, a sound strategy will pay off in the long term. NFL Survivor Picks from PoolGenius are designed to help players always make the best risk-vs.-reward decisions. Among other things, the product:

Provides customized picks based on your pool's size and rules.
Takes into account the teams you’ve already picked.
Optimizes picks for multiple pools and entries (up to 30 picks per week).
Shows the latest betting odds and objective game predictions.
Compiles pick popularity data from survivor pool hosting sites.
Calculates the expected value and future value for all teams.
Shows the future picks that give you the best odds to survive the season.
Updates multiple times per day with the latest data.
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