Jahmyr Gibbs is Primed to go Super Sonic

This offseason, Jahmyr Gibbs changed his jersey number, trading in 26 for 0. Make no mistake: he’s closer to hero than zero. Detroit’s backfield mirrors the classic duo: Sonic and Knuckles. Gibbs, nicknamed Sonic for his electric speed, brings the explosiveness, while David Montgomery (Knuckles) delivers the power. But even in a duo, one star usually rises. And in Detroit, Sonic is becoming the headliner.

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The 2K Club

For the last nine seasons, at least one RB has surpassed 2,000 yards from scrimmage. Of the eight RBs who’ve accomplished that feat, only three have managed to do it more than once: Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Derrick Henry. Each of them first hit that benchmark within their first five seasons in the league.

No RB has repeated the feat in consecutive seasons during this stretch, making another 2,000-yard campaign from Barkley or Henry in 2025 unlikely. So, why is the 2,000-yard threshold so important, and who will be the RB to reach these heights in 2025?

Every RB who has reached that mark has finished no worse than RB5 in half-PPR formats. These are league winners. Identifying the breakout RB of the year can be the difference between winning and losing your fantasy league.

Here’s a quick look at recent 2,000-yard scrimmage seasons:

• 2016: David Johnson (RB1)
• 2017: Todd Gurley (RB1)
• 2018: Saquon Barkley (RB1) & Ezekiel Elliott (RB5)
• 2019: Christian McCaffrey (RB1)
• 2020: Derrick Henry (RB2)
• 2021: Jonathan Taylor (RB1)
• 2022: Josh Jacobs (RB2)
• 2023: Christian McCaffrey (RB1)
• 2024: Saquon Barkley (RB1) & Derrick Henry (RB3)

The RB trending toward that milestone in 2025? Jahmyr Gibbs.

Since being drafted in 2023, Gibbs has steadily emerged from what started as a true committee backfield. His touches trended upward last year while David Montgomery's declined. The efficiency metrics support the eye test, as the Lions’ offense was more potent with Gibbs on the field. He’s no longer just a change-of-pace option; he’s evolving into one of the league’s most electric playmakers.

The growth curve is reminiscent of Christian McCaffrey. CMC went from a rotational piece as a rookie to one of the most transcendent offensive weapons in the league by year three. His historical 2019 season, when he posted over 1,000 rushing and 1,000 receiving yards, was a feat not seen since Marshall Faulk in 1999.

Both McCaffrey and Gibbs were the second RB off the board in their respective drafts, slightly undersized, and made noticeable leaps in year two. With David Montgomery aging and Gibbs proving too dynamic to keep off the field, it’s reasonable to expect an even larger workload in 2025. He may not hit 300 carries, but he's on pace to exceed last year’s total of 250. For reference, McCaffrey’s carry count steadily climbed from 117 as a rookie to 219 in Year 2 and 287 in Year 3. Gibbs started with 182 carries in 2023 and followed it up with 250 in 2024.

Of course, Reggie Bonnafon posed far less of a threat to CMC’s workload than Montgomery does to Gibbs, but the point remains: feed your rising stars and good things happen.

The biggest difference between Gibbs and a player like CMC is target share in the passing game. McCaffrey was a featured weapon in the passing game, eclipsing 100 receptions multiple times. Gibbs has been productive (52 receptions in both 2023 and 2024) but hasn’t yet seen the target volume of a top-tier receiving back. In Detroit’s crowded offense, 100 receptions might be unrealistic, but an uptick in targets? That feels well within reach.

More Opportunities for Jahmyr Gibbs on the Horizon

John Morton joins the Lions staff after spending the past two seasons as the passing game coordinator in Denver. Under Sean Payton, the Broncos ranked sixth in total RB screens (71). When looking at screen usage as a share of total screens, Denver ranks 10th (43.3%). By contrast, Detroit under Ben Johnson called just 58 RB screens since 2023 (17th most), and their RB screen rate (32.6%) ranked 21st. Morton’s influence, paired with Gibbs' explosiveness and receiving chops, suggests a higher volume role in the passing game is possible. And if the touches go up, so does his ceiling.

Despite coming off one of the most efficient fantasy seasons on a per-touch basis, there are two to three RBs often ranked ahead of Gibbs in fantasy projections: Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, and Derrick Henry. I’ve already laid out why a repeat for Barkley and Henry is unlikely, but what about Bijan?

Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs? Why Gibbs Wins at ADP

He’s certainly a strong candidate for a year-three breakout and already commands a sizable target share. But I’m concerned about what Michael Penix’s presence might mean for his production. In the three games Penix played, Bijan’s rushing output spiked to 118 yards and 2 TDs per game, compared to just 79 yards and 0.5 TDs across the rest of the season.

But those three matchups came against the Giants, Commanders, and Panthers. All bottom-tier run defenses in both EPA per rush and success rate. Was that a true breakout or simply a product of weak competition?

More importantly, Bijan’s receiving numbers dropped off significantly with Penix at QB. He averaged close to 4 receptions and 29 receiving yards with Cousins, but just over 2 receptions and 7 yards per game with Penix. That drop is tied directly to play style: Penix had the 2nd-highest average depth of target (10.2), while Cousins ranked 25th (7.5) among QBs with at least 100 plays.

Against tougher competition and with a QB who prefers to push the ball downfield, Bijan may not offer the same receiving upside as Gibbs, which is crucial in half-PPR formats.

The Bottom Line

• Gibbs is a prime candidate to be the next RB to amass over 2,000 yards from scrimmage.
• Gibbs has been a top 10 fantasy RB since entering the league and is tracking on a career path similar to Christian McCaffrey’s.
• Look for John Morton, the new offensive coordinator, to get Gibbs involved more in the passing game, and more specifically, the screen game.
• Currently priced as the RB3 on Underdog, I believe Gibbs has the best case to be RB1 in 2025.