NFL Spread and O/U Picks: Hunter's Week 13 Best Bets
The NFL Redzone witching hour of the year! The double-digit dogs from Carolina took it to the Chiefs, scoring a late touchdown and two-point conversion just to watch it slip away to another Patrick Mahomes game-winning drive. The Bears mounted an absurd comeback against the league’s top defense to force overtime, which included one of three successful onside kicks all season. Don’t worry; the Vikings still won but failed to cover our -3.5. Lastly, there was the absolute chaos that was the 41 fourth-quarter points scored in the Commanders/Cowboys faceoff. The Commanders' special teams gave up two special teams touchdowns in the last three minutes alone, including an onside kick returned for a touchdown.
As for my bets, the 41 fourth-quarter points weren’t enough for the Commanders’ team total over. It was frustrating that the Vikings managed not to cover another game where they seemingly had it in the bag from the second quarter on. But that’s just the way it goes sometimes. We ended Week 12 by going 2-3 for -3.34 units. Now we get Thanksgiving week with no teams on byes.
2024 NFL Week 13 Sides and Totals
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Bet #1: Miami Dolphins +3 +100 v Green Bay (graded at Bet365, DraftKings/ESPNBet have +3.5 -115, BetRivers has +3.5 -118, FD has +3.5 -120, most others have +3 +100)
Green Bay is being rated as the 3rd best defense in the NFL. I cannot get even close to that, as I have them as roughly the 15th-best defense, which is pretty on par with their 14th DVOA defensive rank. They are also 17th in DVOA against the rush, which the Dolphins want to attack with, as they are 30th in Pass Rate over Expectation.
Miami's offense, however, is better at passing with the return of Tua Tagovailoa. Since Week 8, the Dolphins are 1st in the league in EPA/Dropback. They will be up against a Packers’ defense that initially looks good against the pass, as they are 8th in EPA/Dropback. However, that drops to 14th when excluding turnovers. Tua has shown to be turnover-prone when under pressure and is leading the league in turnover-worthy plays under pressure. However, the Packers rank smack in the middle of the league in quarterback pressure rates.
The Dolphins have also been better defensively with the return of Zach Sieler on the defensive line. In the last 4 games, they have had two plus matchups in the Raiders and Patriots, and two negative matchups in the Bills and Rams. Over that time, they are 8th in EPA/Dropback and 13th in EPA/Rush.
Quick note on the +3.5/+3 line: +3 +100 is roughly equal to +3.5 -119. The preference of which line to take is up to you.
Risk: 2.5 units to win 2.5 units
Bet #2: New York Giants +4 -110 v Dallas Cowboys (graded at Circa, Bet365/BetMGM/Caesars all have the same)
Risk: 2.2 units to win 2 units
Bet #3: New York Giants v Dallas Cowboys O37.5 -110 (graded at Caesars, Circa has O37 -110, FD has O37.5 -105, DK has -108, most other books have -110)
Risk: 2.75 units to win 2.5 units
Drew Lock is likely to get the start on Thursday. Statistically, he should be an upgrade over Tommy Devito, and he isn’t afraid to push the ball down the field, having a top 5 ADot since 2020. He is 66th EPA+CPOE and 48th in Adjusted EPA/Play out of 83 qualifiers since 2020. For comparison, Cooper Rush is 76th in EPA+CPOE and 67th in Adj EPA/Play.
Unfortunately, for any good parts you get with Lock, it comes with a fair amount of ‘bad’ as well. Lock is incredibly turnover-prone, which should lead to variance with the total on this game. He was 9th in turnover-worthy plays in 2023 in his Seahawks stint and was first overall in turnover-worthy plays with the Broncos back in 2020. Defensive scores may be live in this game as well.
Cooper Rush has shown the ability to somewhat move the ball since his first start against the Eagles. The box score against a very good Texans defense was pretty misleading, as the Cowboys ‘should have’ scored closer to 26 points in that effort, but failed on key 4th downs and red zone trips. Last week against the Commanders, the offense had a respectable 5.4 yards per play and, despite the special teams scoring inflating their total, had a true score of 22 points. Now they get a Giants defense that has certainly been underperforming as of late and are 28th in defensive EPA/Rush, and 24th in EPA/Dropback since week 4.
Regardless of if we get Drew Lock or Tommy Devito. I could not get to 4 points with either. Devito is the worst of the two, but I still made it a line of 3.7. Drew Lock gives us the best chance and will push this number closer to Giants +3, but I would make it +2.6.
Bet #4: Detroit Lions -9.5 -118 v Chicago Bears (graded at DraftKings, ESPNBet has -115, BetRivers has -110)
Risk: 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Bet #5: Detroit Lions v Chicago Bears O48 -110 (graded at Circa, Bet365 and DraftKings have the same, BetRivers has an O47.5 -110)
Risk: 2.75 units to win 2.5 units
I’m not convinced the Bears' defense will be able to stop the Lions' rushing attack effectively enough to keep this game under. The Lions have a clear top 3 rushing attack in the league (#3 in EPA/Rush and #2 in Offensive Rush DVOA) and use that to open up the downfield passing game for Jared Goff. The Bears are not set up to stop the rush and are 20th in defensive EPA/Rush. That should allow the Lions offense to open things up in yet another dome stadium.
The Lions' defense certainly took a hit with Carlton Davis getting announced as inactive today. They now have Terrion Arnold (bad but a rookie) and Kindle Vildor (worse and somehow still on a roster) as the starting outside corners. Inpredictable has the Lions market rated as the 7th defense and the Bears rated as the 16th defense in the league going into this game, and I am much lower on both in my ratings (13th and 22nd respectively).
I think this game sets up well for an over first and foremost, but to carry on the tradition of a side and total in every Thanksgiving day game, I do think there is still a route for the Lions to make a few extra stops against Caleb Williams’ Bears. The Lions are equipped to force Caleb Williams to beat them on his own and do so while under pressure. Unfortunately, Williams is currently 21st of 27 in PFF grade when under pressure and second to last in pressure-to-sack ratio, beating out only Will Levis for quarterbacks who have taken 50% or more of snaps. Sacks kill drives in the NFL, and the Lions get pressure on quarterbacks at the 10th-highest rate in the NFL.
Bet #6: Miami Dolphins v Green Bay Packers O47.5 -110 (graded at Circa, DK has -108, most other books have -110)
To rehash some earlier points of the Miami +3 write-up: Green Bay is being rated as the 3rd best defense in the NFL. I cannot get even close to that, as I have them as roughly the 15th-best defense, which is pretty on par with their 14th DVOA defensive rank. Miami's offense however is better at passing with the return of Tua Tagovailoa. Since Week 8, the Dolphins are 1st in the league in EPA/Dropback and 4th in pass rate over expectation. They will be up against a Packers’ defense that initially looks good against the pass, as they are 8th in EPA/Dropback. However, that drops to 14th when excluding turnovers.
I don’t have much to add in the way of Green Bay’s offense. I’m pretty spot on with both Green Bay’s offense and Miami’s defense this week. I think the total will come down to Miami’s offense being able to push Green Bay into needing to keep their foot on the pedal.
Risk: 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Bet #7: New England Patriots v Indianapolis Colts U42.5 -110 (graded at Circa, most other books are at the same number, DraftKings has -115)
Offensively, the Colts should be getting Bernhard Raimann back at the left tackle position, but they will now be down to their third-string center today with Tanor Bortolini getting announced out. They will also be without Josh Downs this week. Not the best news for Anthony Richardson, who is already sitting at 28th out of 33 quarterbacks this year in Adjusted EPA/Play and is 6th in turnover-worthy plays when pressured. Drake Maye himself has not faired a whole let better, at 25th in EPA/Play.
After being a pretty poor defense unit all season long, the Patriots have improved lately. Season-long, they are still 29th in EPA/Play. However, since Week 8, they are 15th in EPA/Play, including moving up to 10th in EPA/Rush. That anchor point still includes teams ranked in the low to mid-20s in offensive EPA/Rush, and the Colts (with their offensive line issues as of late) have been 23rd in EPA/Rush since Week 8.
My biggest disparity here is on the Colts defensive rating though. The market has this team rated 24th on the week, but this defense is finally healthy and being heavily underrated. With Deforest Buckner and Kenny Moore both back in the lineup (since Week 8), the Colts have been 9th in EPA/Dropback and 11th in EPA/Play. This is a unit that has crept into a top ten rating by my numbers.
Risk: 2.75 units to win 2.5 units
Bet #8: Los Angeles Rams Team Total O26.5 -104 v New Orleans Saints (graded at FanDuel, DraftKings has +105, Caesars has +100, and BetMGM has -105)
One of the bigger positional group mismatches on Sunday will be the Rams’ receiving corp matched up with the Saints' 30th-ranked secondary group. Despite being middle of the pack on the year for Pass Rate Over Expectation in 2024, the Rams have shifted to a more pass-heavy approach as of late and have been 6th in PROE since Week 9. If the Rams decide to run the ball, they should find success there as well. The Saints are 29th in defensive EPA/Rush.
The Saints' defense has been porous all year, but especially since they started stockpiling secondary injuries. Since Week 5, the Saints have allowed a true score of over 26 in every game except for Week 9 versus the Bryce Young-led Panthers.
Its week 13, and I still don’t know what to make of the Saints offense, keeping me away from the game total. They will be without Eric McCoy and Lucas Patrick in the middle of their offensive line and historically Derek Carr has been bad under pressure. The Rams are 8th in quarterback pressures.
Risk: 2.6 units to win 2.5 units
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