Week 9 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen
Week 8 Recap: After a breakeven Week 7 we bounced back in a BIG way in Week 8. We finished with an 11-4 record on straight props, for a total of +6.78 units. $100 per unit bettors profited $678. We had some stellar luck on Josh Jacobs going under his prop of 61.5 rushing yards on Monday Night, but most of the other props won by a fairly wide margin. Dalton Kincaid continued to crush without Dawson Knox. Najee Harris was 30 yards off a prop set at 45.5. Josh Downs cashed his reception prop over in the first half. Travis Etienne nearly doubled his rushing prop of 63.5. This was one of those weeks where almost everything went as planned.
On the season I’m now up 19.26 units. That means $100 per unit bettors would have profited $1,926. Even if you missed out so far, there is still plenty of time to hop in and make money. Find out how you can get a subscription for as low as $5!
Week 9 Player Prop Bets
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Rachaad White (TB) under 48.5 rushing yards (-110 Bet365)
Also at DK, MGM, etc. White has been among the worst running backs in the NFL and draws another sneaky-tough matchup. The Houston Texans are 8th in rushing success rate allowed and allowing just 3.38 yards per carry to opposing running backs. In Chase Edmonds' first game back from IR they played White for two drives, Edmonds for one, and then Vaughn for another. That didn't fully flesh out in the carries split but the point is, other backs will be involved. Todd Bowles also talked about using Rachaad White as a dump-off back and trying to continue getting him involved in the receiving game. White has cleared 40 rushing yards in just 2-of-7 games this year.
Play to 46.5 rushing yards.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Marquise Brown (AZ) under 48.5 receiving yards (-119 CZRS,-120 DK, -113 BetRivers, -110 B365, -122 Barstool)
We got official word that rookie Clayton Tune will be starting this week against the Cleveland Browns. It's Tune's first career start after the Cardinals drafted him in the 5th round this season. He wasn't able to beat out Josh Dobbs in the preseason and the Cardinals figure to skew massively run-heavy in this spot. On top of that, the Browns defense has been really strong this season ranking 1st in EPA per dropback allowed and passing success rate. They also don't allow a ton of big plays. This is going to be a brutal first chance for Tune especially with Kyler Murray waiting in the wings, likely starting next week regardless of the result here. Brown has been under 50 yards in half of his games this season already and now draws a tough matchup with potentially debilitating quarterback play. Play to 45.
Risk 1.19 units to win 1 unit
Brandon Powell under 19.5 receiving yards (-115 DK, MGM, CZRS, fine at 18.5 on FD as well)
There are multiple factors working against Powell here but lets start with the game state. The Vikings are starting "Jarren Hall" a rookie from BYU that the Vikings selected in the fifth round. His likely poor play alone could nuke basically all receiving options for the Vikings. On top of that, this figures to be a run-centric game plan for both sides with minimal passing volume. The chart bros are going to look at this and say he has gone over in 3 of the last 4, that's 75%! Against SF he had zero catches in the first half and didn't have any production until Jordan Addison got injured. Last week he is coming off a game where he played just 53% of the time and almost all of his snaps are in the slot which tends to lean towards a lower average depth of target. His ADOT at 8.9 is closer to Hockenson than it is to a guy like Jordan Addison. There are tons of outs here with passing inefficiency, game state producing mostly runs, him being the 4th target on the team and more.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Tee Higgins over 47.5 receiving yards (-115 DK, -119 Builder, 49.5 -114 FD)
Playable to 52 on the straight line but i'm also sprinkling alternate overs.
This line is aggressively low because the offense wasn't playing well early on and Higgins was banged up. Coming out of the bye Higgins saw 6 targets, catching 5 for 69 receiving yards. He still isn't a full-time player but his role figures to continue to increase and even if it doesn't this matchup is pristine he can hit alts regardless. With Burrow playing under center more and showing he is healthy enough to push the ball downfield it opens up the offense for massive ceiling games.
The Bills suffered major injuries to their defense and since then are bottom-3 in EPA per play and 28th in success rate allowed defensively. Since their injuries started to pile up in Week 5 they have allowed 7 wideouts to clear 50 yards including the following lines to opposing wideouts (receptions/yards):
- 5/54 to Chris Godwin
- 6/63 to Kendrick Bourne
- 4/54 to Pop Douglas
- 4 /60 to Darius Slayton
- 8/62 to Wan'Dale Robinson
- 7/122 to Calvin Ridley
- 6/78 to Christian Kirk
They played one strong passing attack and were wrecked by Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit on over 47.5 receiving yards
Alts (.1 units on each, if you run into limits, FD is fine too)
70+ (+220 DK) 0.1 to win 0.22
80+ (+340 DK) 0.1 to win 0.34
90+ (+400 DK) 0.1 to win 0.40
100+ (+650 DK) 0.1 to win 0.65
All in all, this is a 1.55 unit play with the alt overs
Dalton Schultz (HOU) under 39.5 receiving yards (-110 MGM, -117 CZRS, -130 DK, 37.5 at BR, 35.5 FD,)
Schultz had a three-game stretch where he crushed but has been pretty quiet in the other four games this season. Schultz runs into a tough matchup against Tampa Bay who has faced arguably the toughest slate of tight ends this season. That includes TJ Hockenson and Sam LaPorta. Despite that, they have only allowed 40+ receiving yards to "Tight Ends" Dalton Kincaid, Kyle Pitts, and Dallas Goedert, all of which line up in the slot and out wide a bunch. TJ Hockenson and Laporta both went under this number despite the massive volume. The Bucs are 4th in DVOA against the tight end position overall.
Risk to win 1 unit
Taylor Heinicke (ATL) under 218.5 passing yards (-114 FD, playable at 214.5 DK)
I would play this down to 210.5. This is a really interesting line. The Falcons will likely be without Drake London who hasn't practiced yet this week and are facing a Vikings defense that loves to blitz. On the season they are 1st in blitz rate, bringing an extra man over 50% of the time. Against the blitz in 2022, Heinicke completed just 57% of his passes for 6 YPA. That was also with Terry Mclaurin.
The Vikings are trotting out "Jarren Hall," a relatively unknown backup and I would expect both teams to remain extremely committed to the running game in this spot. With a uniquely tough matchup likely without his best weapon in a run-focused game plan on both sides, there are lots of ways this goes under.
Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit
Dalton Kincaid over 34.5 receiving yards (-114 fd, playable at 38.5, dk, mgm, czrs)
Play to 40, I would guess this moves fast so wanted to get it out now.
This line hasn’t adjusted enough to his new usage. Kincaid ran a route on 85% of dropbacks last week without Dawson Knox. He now has 8/75 and 5/65 in two games with more usage. In what is expected to be a back and forth affair I not only like Kincaid’s over but ladders as well.
Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit
Cole Kmet under 33.5 receiving yards (-114 FD, playable at 32.5 elsewhere and fine down to 30)
The Bears are rolling out Tyson Bagent again and now face a unique challenge. The Saints play man defense at the third-highest rate in the league and have had a lot of success eating up bottom-tier passing games this season. The Bears absolutely qualify and I expect them to have a lot of trouble moving the ball here.
Coming off a zero-target game two weeks ago, the Bears fed Kmet against the Chargers zone-heavy approach. Kmet also talked about in an interview last week how they were going to draw up a bunch for him. I don't expect that to be consistent here. Against zone defenses this season Cole Kmet is averaging over 9 yards per target. Against man defense, he is averaging just 2.74 yards per target this season and has just 27 yards total against man coverage. If we want a bigger sample, we saw him average 8.9 yards per target against zone and a little over 6 ypt against man coverage.
Beyond his man/zone splits, the Saints have largely been great against opposing tight ends this season ranking 5th in DVOA against the position and allowing 34 yards per game to the position in total. While their competition hasn't been stiff, it's a multi-year trend for the Saints with the same defensive scheming.
Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit
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