Week 8 Sunday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Oct 28, 2023

Sunday Night Single-Game DFS: Bears vs. Chargers

Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the Week 8 Sunday Night Football breakdown, as the Chicago Bears head to Los Angeles to face the Chargers. This game features two teams desperately in need of a win to shake off the early-season cobwebs or risk falling into complete oblivion in the respective conferences. The Bears, led by undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent, managed to claw their way to a victory last week against the Brian Hoyer-led Raiders. The Chargers, licking their wounds after a tough loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, find themselves in a precarious position at 2-4 and with the third-worst record in the AFC. Let's delve into this matchup and see how can dominate this single-game DFS slate.

Game Environment

^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}

Bears (+6.5, 19) @ Chargers (-6.5, 27.5 ); Over/Under 46.5

The Bears are 8.5-point underdogs in this contest, carrying an implied total of just 19 points, a fact that speaks volumes about the challenges facing their backup rookie quarterback. The team's subpar record of 2-5, their third-worst standing in the NFC, and the absence of their starting quarterback Justin Fields set the tone for what is likely to be a grueling game for Chicago. Notably, the Bears rank 29th in pass plays per game and are bottom-third in pace, despite being consistently forced into catch-up mode. Tyson Bagent's performance last weekend showed a lack of deep-ball aggressiveness, throwing only one attempt of 20-plus air yards, which raises questions about how the team will adjust their strategy given the Chargers' vulnerabilities in the secondary.

Meanwhile, the Chargers are sitting at an underwhelming 2-4 record and are facing their own set of challenges, especially in their injury-riddled receiving corps. Luckily for them, their opponent appears equally beleaguered, as the Chargers are expected to control this game with an implied total of 27.5 points. The team's offense tends to operate at a fast pace, especially in neutral game scripts. Their passing frequency is about league average but significantly more aggressive than the Bears. Justin Herbert is airing it out at 8.9 yards per attempt, the fifth-highest in the league. However, with injuries to key secondary receivers Joshua Palmer and Gerald Everett (not to mention, the absence of Mike Williams since Week 3), the Chargers' deep-ball prowess is a bit in question. Still, we should assume a continued balanced attack, with Herbert looking for any opportunity for a shot play against a subpar Chicago defense.

Quarterback Analysis

^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}

For the Bears, Bagent will be under center again. Last week, Bagent managed to guide the team to a win without much in terms of statistical output. He averaged a mere 5.6 yards per attempt on 29 attempts, accumulating a paltry 162 passing yards. While he did add 24 rushing yards and a score on the ground, these total numbers aren't enough for DFS players to have any kind of confidence in him. With the caveat of this being a small sample size, Bagent ranks well below the league average across various efficiency metrics like EPA per game, true drive success rate, and expected fantasy points per game. The Chargers defense has been far from stout, however, offering a bit of upside in an otherwise poor game environment.

Herbert, in contrast, has hit the 20 DraftKings point mark in five of his six games this season. Herbert ranks ninth in adjusted yards per attempt and eighth in QBR. We have seen a noticeable dip in his ceiling performances since the loss of Mike Williams, as he’s yet to hit 25 points since Week 3. But luckily Herbert is adding a bit of extra value on the ground, averaging nearly five carries per game and having already found the end zone three times this season. Despite the lack of depth in receiving options due to injuries, Herbert's metrics, opportunity value, and median projection all suggest that he could be in for a spike week, especially against a Bears team with a less-than-stellar defense at all levels of the field.