Week 4 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen

Sep 28, 2023

Bob Self/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK

Week 3 Recap: We are just starting to get going this season with our first breakthrough week. We went 12-8 for +3.70 units on the week. It wasn’t an insane week by any means, but gets us trending in the right direction to potentially stack multi-unit weeks. The prop market is getting tougher but there are still plenty of situations we have an advantage. Those in the discord know that I love betting unders but this year, I have shifted my mentality a tiny bit. My first look is always under, but certain sportsbooks are mispricing players in certain roles that aren’t being accounted for correctly. A great example this week was Justin Watson. Despite running the 3^rd-most routes last week behind MVS and Skyy Moore, Watson’s O/U was just 20.5 receiving yards. We took that but also took over 40, 50, and 60 receiving yards at big numbers. He has a deep average depth of target and had seen 9 targets through the first two games. On top of that, the Bears' defense has been among the worst in the league. Watson finished with 51 receiving yards despite not playing nearly the entire fourth quarter. If there was any push back at all from the Bears, Watson could have climbed the ladder all the way to the top.

With a strong week behind us, there are multiple spots I have already identified heading into Week 4 that could be ripe for us to stack more units!

Side note: Before I dive in, Ryan Noonan’s tackle props continue to be insane. He does his own projections for every player each week by hand. I don’t blindly tail very much in the betting space, but I do with his tackle props. As is the case with any small market props, the numbers move fast. But with him releasing it with three different outs and giving people a warning ahead of time, most people are able to get down on a playable number.

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