Week 3 NFL Betting Picks: Team and Game Totals
After Week 1, we have a singular data point. After Week 2, we open up the possibility of trends. The goal here is to get ahead of trends as quickly as possible.
It's difficult with such a small sample of data, but we should be drawing on a combination of the first two weeks and what we've seen and heard coming into the season about each of these teams. Bookmakers are just as likely to hold on to their priors as we are, so I'll continue to look for ways to leverage that fact as the season progresses.
I will bring you my favorite totals of the week in this space all season long, focusing on what I believe to be the most significant inefficiency in the market: individual team totals. Working around key numbers is critical, and concentrating on one team or matchup helps eliminate a bit of variance in each bet.
Handicapping NFL sides and totals is not a perfect science, though it gets easier to navigate as the season progresses. The more we can contextualize in-season data and adjust it for the situation and opponent, the better. Whenever possible, lean into situation-adjusted stats over raw counting stats. Utilize metrics like success rate and explosive play rates over total yards and points against. Our Team and Player Stat Explorer tools can help.
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Let's dig into Week 3's totals.
*Betting lines are accurate at the time they're posted in Discord.
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