Week 11 Sunday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Nov 18, 2023

Sunday Night Single-Game DFS: Vikings at Broncos

Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the showdown breakdown for Week 11 Sunday Night Football, a key inter-conference matchup between the Vikings and Broncos. The two squads are a combined 7-0 over the past four weeks, with both teams having successfully turned around what looked like a lost season just a month ago. We’ll do our best to help DFS gamers think through all the possibilities in this tricky but intriguing one-game slate.

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Game Environment

_{^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}}

Vikings (+2.5, 20.0) @ Broncos (-2.5, 22.5); Over/Under 42.5

The Broncos come into this matchup as somewhat surprising 2.5-point favorites at home. Also somewhat surprising is the low amount of scoring expected in this game, despite both teams playing at above-average levels of late. Despite operating an offense that is among the most run-heavy and slowest-paced in the NFL during neutral game scripts, Russell Wilson has the third most passing touchdowns of anyone in the NFL. The team ranks 30th overall in pass plays per game but has opted for selective aggressiveness of late, averaging 3.9 passes of 20-plus air yards and 5.1 passes in the red zone, top 10 in the NFL. The team scores touchdowns right at the NFL average on a per-game basis, averaging 2.1 scores per game.

The Vikings are suddenly right in the thick of the NFC playoff race after rattling off six wins in their last seven games. With improbable victories against the Falcons and Saints after Kirk Cousins went down with a season-ending Achilles injury, the Vikings now control the seventh seed in the NFC and have a legitimate chance to head into their Week 13 bye on a seven-game win streak. While Dobbs relied on intuition and rushing to make it through Week 9, he seemed much more settled into the offense in Week 10 (go figure) and averaged 7.9 yards per attempt. He’s now averaged 32 pass attempts per game with the Vikings, which is right in line with the 31.9 attempt season-long average for the team. Dobbs and the Vikings also rely on faster pace within the offensive scheme and have ranked sixth in pace of play since Week 8. Dobbs averages 3.5 deep passes and 4.3 red zone passes per game, though those numbers could both rise with Justin Jefferson back in the fold (Update: We'll have to wait until at least next week to find out with Jefferson now ruled out.)

Quarterback Analysis

_{^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE) represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}}

Wilson is quietly having a resurgent second season in Denver, and while the raw numbers aren’t spectacular, it’s been enough to make the Broncos a highly competitive team throughout the middle third of the NFL season, as the team has won their last three games and four of their last six. Wilson now ranks above the NFL average in completion percentage vs. expectation, true drive success rate, and EPA per game. His completion percentage of 71% inside the red zone is the best in the league, and his true completion percentage and true passer rating, which both filter out drops and throw-aways, rank top five as well. Wilson also has more rushing upside than previous seasons, averaging over 25 rush yards per game, 10th best among quarterbacks. He’s also top 10 in red zone carries per game, though that hasn’t yet resulted in any scores on the ground. He likely needs a rush score (or three-plus passing touchdowns) to propel him over the 25 fantasy point mark, something he’s only done once this season.

The Vikings continue to get incredibly strong play from their new signal-caller, who has created a fervor in Minnesota after scoring five touchdowns in his first two games as a member of the Vikings and scoring in the top five of all quarterbacks in fantasy points in back-to-back weeks. Dobbs now has three straight games of 24 or more fantasy points and has scored on the ground in four straight games. He’s sixth at his position in carries per game, and third in both rush yards per game and total rushing touchdowns. Dobbs hasn’t been spectacular as a passer, averaging 5.7 adjusted yards per attempt (AYA), outside the top 25, but he’s playing aggressively and often finds himself in shootouts and/or comeback efforts (especially while he was with Arizona), leading to the seventh most air yards and sixth most total pass attempts in the league thus far. The passing volume and rushing upside are a perfect combination for fantasy football upside. Dobbs currently ranks ninth in the NFL in expected fantasy points per game and is scoring right in line with expectations.