NBA Player Prop Bets: It's Always Dame Time

Mar 19, 2023

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After an 0-2 article yesterday, Sunday’s quiet NBA slate provides us with an opportunity to get back on track in the prop department. My three favorite NBA player props for Sunday’s slate are outlined below.

Regarding the process behind the plays, the suite of tools that 4for4 offers are second-to-none. I use the NBA Splits Tool to break down injury impacts and lineup changes and the NBA Prop Stat Explorer to look at historical data for how the player performs relative to their prop and compare it to our in-house projection. Using these alongside the Player Prop Finder to shop for the best line, 4for4 makes betting on NBA player props a stress-free and fun process.

Now, let’s put the tools to use and get to today’s top player props.

Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (March 19, 2023)

Damian Lillard Over 4.5 3-Pointers Made (-111, Caesars)

Lillard’s play remains other-worldly, as he’s made a strong case to be dubbed as the best scorer in the NBA this season. With Jerami Grant ruled out on Sunday, he should be slated for another astronomical workload against a slipping Clippers defense.

In six games this season with Grant sidelined, Lillard has somehow seen his 33.7% usage rate in games alongside Grant skyrocket up to 37.9%. While he doesn’t see a massive uptick in volume (20.6 FGA per game with Grant versus 23 FGA per game without), it’s the distribution of his volume that stands out.

In games alongside Grant this season, Lillard has averaged 9.5 2-point attempts and 11 3-point attempts, whereas he’s averaged 8.3 2-point attempts and 14.7 3-point attempts without Grant, clearly shifting his focus towards burying teams from deep. Lillard has attempted no less than 12 threes in a game without Grant this season, most recently attempting 17 and 15 in his last two without him, boasting usage rates of 35.7% and 42.5%.

Against a Clippers’ defense that’s ranked 24th in defensive rating (117.7) and 10th in pace (100.9) since the break, Lillard should have plenty of opportunities to capitalize from deep and hit this over.

Risk: 1.11 units on Caesars to win 1 unit.