NBA Player Prop Bets: Happy Holidays!

Feb 24, 2023

NBA Player Prop Bets (February 24, 2023)

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After a massive nine-game Thursday slate, we’re right back into the thick of things with an eight-game NBA slate on Friday as the home stretch of the season is officially underway. I’ve outlined my three favorite player props for tonight’s slate below and have also added some additional picks in Discord.

Regarding the process behind the plays, the suite of tools that 4for4 offers are second-to-none. I use the NBA Splits Tool to break down injury impacts and lineup changes and the NBA Prop Stat Explorer to look at historical data for how the player performs relative to their prop and compare it to our in-house projection. Using these alongside the Player Prop Finder to shop for the best line, 4for4 makes betting on NBA player props a stress-free and fun process. With the shameless plug (that I am not explicitly paid for!), let’s get into the props for today.

Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (February 24, 2023)

Jrue Holiday Over 33.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115 at DraftKings)

At the time of writing this, Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed as doubtful with seemingly the whole world expecting him to sit and nurse his right wrist injury. We’ve seen the Bucks cause frustrations with injury tags before, but I do not think this is one of those situations.

Even with Khris Middleton likely returning to the starting lineup and Bobby Portis coming back from injury, the void left by Antetokounmpo will do wonders for Holiday’s underlying rates. This has also been proven over the last two seasons.

In eight games without the Greek Freak this season, Jrue Holiday has averaged 22.8 points, a four-point increase over the 18.8 per game with Antetokounmpo active, while also adding 9.9 assists and 4.9 rebounds per game. Granted, many (if not all) of these games were also without Middleton. If looking at the scenario with both Middleton and Holiday on the court, but Antetokounmpo off the court this season, Holiday has averaged 19.8 points, 6.8 rebounds and 5.8 assists per 36 minutes. Not incredibly inspiring, but certainly serviceable considering it’s only a 100-minute sample size, especially considering how many ceiling games we’ve seen from Holiday without Antetokounmpo.

Once Antetokounmpo is officially ruled out, this line is likely to move, so I’m looking to get ahead of the curve here with the 33.5 number.

Risk: 1.15 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit. (Playable until -120 or 34.5 PRA)