NBA Player Prop Bets: Chef Curry Will Cook The Thunder

Mar 07, 2023
NBA Player Prop Bets (March 7, 2023)

The NBA presents us with a nice week from a schedule perspective, as we have digestible slates (between six and nine games) all week, as opposed to the rollercoaster of 10-game slates followed by 4-game slates. This makes it easier on us bettors throughout the week and we have an eight-game slate on tap for Tuesday. My favorite player props are outlined below.

Regarding the process behind the plays, the suite of tools that 4for4 offers are second-to-none. I use the NBA Splits Tool to break down injury impacts and lineup changes and the NBA Prop Stat Explorer to look at historical data for how the player performs relative to their prop and compare it to our in-house projection. Using these alongside the Player Prop Finder to shop for the best line, 4for4 makes betting on NBA player props a stress-free and fun process.

Now, let’s put the tools to use and get to today’s top player props.

Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (March 7, 2023)

Tyus Jones Over 26.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-105 at DraftKings)

It feels like a cheat code to reference the exact same prop (albeit two PRA higher today) that I did on Sunday, but the books haven’t adjusted, so why should we?

On Sunday, I noted:

"In nine games without Morant this season, Jones has averaged 18.8 points (on 51.7% shooting), 7.7 assists, and 3.6 rebounds in 33.1 minutes per game. These rates alone instill confidence in betting the over, but it also helps that Dillon Brooks, Brandon Clarke, and Steven Adams will be absent on Sunday, as well. This should open up even more scoring and rebounding opportunities, as Brooks takes 10-plus shots per game while Adams and Brandon Clarke are two of the best rebounders on the roster."

This held up and then some on Sunday, as Jones posted a monstrous 25-point, 12-assist double-double with three rebounds on an 18.4% usage rate. The usage rate may feel low, but there’s a lot to love about the fact that Jones can pull off stat lines like this without commanding a massive usage rate, especially knowing that Dillon Brooks returns tonight and will siphon some volume. This line, once again, is simply too low.

Risk: 1.575 units on DraftKings to win 1.5 units.

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