NBA Player Prop Bets: Beverley Barrage From Deep for Bulls
With injuries or returns from injury happening, there are plenty of uncertain situations on the 10-game slate tonight, but there are matchups worth taking a look and at juicy prices.
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Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (March 22, 2023)
Patrick Beverley Over 1.5 Threes (+130 at DraftKings)
Patrick Beverley has certainly brought a spark to a Bulls team that seemed otherwise lethargic and ready for the offseason, and he has been hitting important shots as of late as well.
With Zach LaVine on a tear since the all-star break and DeMar DeRozan seemingly bouncing back from a rough patch, defenses are more than happy to give Patrick Beverley every open jumper he can take, and with a prop this low, Beverley is clearly that bar. With the Bulls, when Beverley has gotten five or more attempts from beyond the arc, he is 3-1 to the over. In those games, Beverley is averaging 3.0 threes on 7.3 attempts, and that includes the last two, where he is averaging a whopping nine attempts per game.
The Bulls are on the second leg of a home-and-home with the Sixers, and last game, the Sixers gave Beverley eight shots from deep, seven in regulation, and took their chances with him draining wide-open shots. Considering how low-scoring the game was, it is fair to expect a similar defensive strategy and Beverley to not even need to shoot a quality percentage to go over the number.
Risk: 1 unit on DraftKings to win 1.3 units. (Playable to +110)
DraftKings $1,000 Deposit Bonus
Chris Paul Double Double (+115 at PointsBet)
Most of the time, when a player misses time, the trickle-down effect is thought of at the same position or within the frontcourt or backcourt. In the case of Deandre Ayton, the statistical impact is felt most by Chris Paul.
Ayton is a big that can create his own shot in the post of the short-roll area, but his replacement Bismack Biyombo is a much more limited offensive player that requires being set up by a ball-handler to score. That creates more potential assist opportunities for Paul, with a true rim-running center that can catch and finish lobs. In the games where Ayton has been out, Paul is averaging 11.9 assists on 19.4 potential assists. Paul is averaging 8.5 assists in games where Ayton has played. If you add the wrinkle of Devin Booker being in the lineup, along with Ayton being out, Paul’s assists are raised to 12.2 on 20.2 potential assists.
Paul has gotten a double-double in three of his last five games, two of those with Ayton, and is benefitting from the usage funnel with Durant and Ayton out. In the starting lineup, outside of Booker and Paul, none of Josh Okogie, Torrey Craig, or Bismack Biyombo are creating their own offense. That means Booker and Paul have to take on that load for the Suns.
Phoenix is in Los Angeles tonight, where the Lakers are in the middle third of the league in slowing PGs scoring and assists. While the comparison is not perfect due to the roster change from the Durant deal, in the other matchup this year against the Lakers, where Paul played, he had 28 points and eight assists. With Durant in the picture, the scoring would be in question as well, but Paul is averaging 14.3 points since Durant exited the lineup.
Risk: 1 unit on PointsBet to win 1.15 units. (Playable to -110)
PointsBet Sportsbook
Jalen Brunson Over 2.5 Threes (+150 at FanDuel)
Jalen Brunson has stabilized the Knicks' offense and been impressive in his ability to get inside, but against a Miami Heat team that is allowing the fourth-fewest shots at the rim in the last two weeks, letting it fly from deep may be Brunson’s best plan of attack.
The Miami Heat like to switch defensively as to not create driving lanes, and when they are not in that, they have been playing defensive player of the year candidate Bam Adebayo in drop coverage to also prevent shots at the rim. That focus on the rim has left the three-point line more exposed. In the last two weeks, the Heat are allowing the second most corner threes in the league, and they are in the bottom third overall in preventing shots from deep.
Brunson has gone over this prop in four of his last seven games, including going three for seven against the Heat. For being a primary initiator, Brunson floats to the corners often and gets opportunities there, especially when Randle or Barrett are creating on the other side. He took advantage of that for two of his makes in that game. With how well the Heat close off the lane, the other Knicks that drive will be looking to kick the ball out, and Brunson should be a reliable option with some space. While Brunson prefers not to take as many attempts from deep, he is a smart player that will take what the defense gives him, and that is not reflected properly in this number.
Risk: 1 unit on FanDuel to win 1.5 units. (Playable to +115)
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