Week 16 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet From Ryan Noonan

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You're probably tired of hearing me talk about it over the years. Between the weekly discussions on Move The Line and my weekly Lookahead Lines article, I'm constantly railing on our ability, or inability, to consistently beat a market as liquid as NFL sides. But player props? Player props are an entirely different story.

There are similarities that prop betting has with traditional markets, like sides and totals. First, the best way to consistently put yourself in a position to realize positive expected value (+EV) long-term is to beat the closing line number. Secondly, this is more difficult with sides than props, but you need better numbers than the market. With props, that means having the best projections. Projections that give you an edge against the field. Well, this is 4for4. We have the best projections, full stop.

I'm not here to promise you a list of winners every week like some old-school 800-number tout, but I have a pretty solid track record of forecasting player performance, and I believe our team's process is sound, and we can exploit this market every week of the season.

Our Discord users know my new passion is tackle and assist props, but sportsbooks had been posting them later and later each week, making it impossible to feature them here weekly, but that's changing! A few early looks dropped, and we'll start there. If you're looking for more tackle and assist looks, I always preview a few of my favorites on our Move The Line Prop Drop show on Friday afternoons but make sure you're in Discord to get the official plays each week. The player prop tool is also pulling in my projections, an added bonus if you're looking to dip your toes in this market. Official tackle props are 21-7 over the past three weeks, so jump in. The water is warm! Make sure to see who Connor Allen is betting on this week.

Week 16 NFL Player Prop Bets

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Kaden Elliss (NO) Over 7.5 Tackles + Assists (-115, DraftKings)

Kaden Elliss is back in an every-down role for the Saints with Pete Werner ruled out for this one with a hamstring injury. In the three games Werner missed earlier this season, Elliss went for 12, 13, and 8 tackles and assists, but none of those spots were as favorable as this one.

In my projections, I have a very conservative play volume number set here because of the weather. The range of outcomes on total plays feels wider here than in a normal game, but I don't think the Browns' game plan changes all that much, despite the weather. It's hard to imagine a scenario where run-first Cleveland turns into a passing machine in 30+ MPH winds, which is the sustained wind speed number in Saturday's forecast.

On the season, linebackers are averaging 23.5 tackles per game against the Browns, tied for the most in the league. We also have advantageous scorekeeping here with the Browns issuing 25.3 assists per game to the road team—four more than the league average.

Risk: 1.15 units to win 1 unit on DraftKings.

Davante Adams Over 5.5 Receptions (+100, DraftKings)

We're getting a discount on Davante Adams, and it's a great look at this price. He's coming off two quiet performances, and there's a bit of a squeaky wheel narrative at play in this spot. First, the impact of Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow's return had little impact last week despite what the box score says.

New England went out of their way to take Adams out of the game last week, bracketing him for most of the game and holding him to four catches on nine targets, which is still an encouraging number. His 44.4% catch rate against the Patriots was only slightly better than the 43.9% catch rate he posted against the Rams the week before, but that was the first time Jalen Ramsey truly shadowed an opposing wide receiver all season.

On the year, Adams has a 61% catch rate, and this Steelers secondary doesn't have the talent in the back half to slow Adams down. Prior to the Rams and Patriots games (8 targets per game), Adams saw double-digit targets in five straight, averaging 13.4 looks per game over that time frame. His seasonal average target and catch rate will be enough to get it done here, but this is a better-than-average matchup, and we're getting it at +100.

Risk: 1 unit to win 1 unit on DraftKings.

I will continue to update this column throughout the week with more bets.

For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter, and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet, from Dan Rivera, tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff). Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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