Week 16 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet From Connor Allen
Week 15 Recap: Last week was another profitable one, going 8-3 on the week. The ones we lost could have easily been winners. Jared Goff had around 200 passing yards prior to his fourth-down, 51-yard touchdown to Brock Wright. A stop there means the Jets win the game and Goff goes under his number. Instead, Brock Wright leaked out and was wide-open for a long touchdown. Austin Ekeler busted his rushing number of 40.5 pretty easily and the Titans' run defense wasn’t clogging up holes like they normally do. It was one of the best performances against the Titans we have seen on the ground all season. Our last loss of the week was Brian Robinson over 14.5 carries. In my write-up, I said, “The primary way this doesn’t win is if the Giants get a big lead early.” Of course, that happened with the Giants leading 14-3 at the half and leading for the majority of the game. Beyond that, Robinson ripped off multiple long runs, which resulted in him leaving the field, and he had two carries taken away due to penalties. It wasn’t necessarily a bad beat but I stand by the process and would make that bet again.
To make sure you get in on all of our bets and the best numbers, join our subscriber-only Discord. We release all of our player props, sides, totals, and more in Discord. Plus we have a great community of sharp bettors to discuss your bets with. Digest Ryan Noonan's props and then let's move onto Week 16…
Week 16 NFL Player Prop Bets
[subscribe_betting]
Kirk Cousins Under 266.5 Passing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
The Giants' defense isn't good overall, according to metrics, but Kirk Cousins' struggles match up perfectly with what the Giants' defense does. They blitz at the highest rate in the league, play man coverage at the highest rate in the league, and get pressure at the sixth-highest rate in the league.
Kirk Cousins has over a 70% completion rate against zone and a 50% completion rate against man. He also has a 50% completion rate against the blitz. It makes a ton of sense to go run-heavy in this spot as home favorites against a defense that is 31st in run defense DVOA. Not to mention, the Giants' offense isn't potent enough to force the Vikings into a pass-happy hole. We whiffed on a spot against the Patriots a few weeks ago that I broke down as similar but the main issue was the Patriots couldn't get pressure and Justin Jefferson balled out. The Giants blitz much, much more frequently and that's the key difference. I equate this Giants secondary as closer to the Dolphins' tendencies of man and blitz rate. Cousins threw for only 175 passing yards against them. I like this down to 255 but it'll never get there.
Risk: 1.15 units to win 1 unit at DraftKings.
Andy Dalton Under 154.5 Passing Yards (-120 at BetMGM)
We will likely see an unprecedented level of bad weather and wind in Cleveland—25+ MPH sustained winds with gusts up to 50 MPH. Quarterback yards per attempt numbers dipped by more than two yards at these levels. Deep passing will be near impossible for both sides. Add in the fact that the Browns are a massive run funnel and you will have a run-centric approach and an inefficient passing game when they do throw. Not to mention the Browns will likely skew extremely run-heavy as well, meaning play volume in this game will be extremely low.
If you can't get enough down at these numbers, I would play to 145.5.
Risk: 1.20 units to win 1 unit at BetMGM.
Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets
Zay Jones Under 51.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
After multiple explosive weeks in a row in shootouts or facing bad secondaries, Zay Jones faces the ultimate heat check against the Jets. The Jets have done a great job locking up perimeter receivers with Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner and DJ Reed. Zay Jones has lined up on the outside on over 75% of his routes over the past two weeks.
With Zach Wilson drawing another start, I don't expect the Jets to be able to push the Jaguars into another shootout. On top of that, the weather is expected to be gross. Significant rain is expected to fall starting in the afternoon and continuing throughout the game. Wind speeds are expected to continue climbing throughout the game starting around 12-15 MPH but increasing throughout.
With the matchup, game state, and weather likely making this a snooze fest, I like Jones down to 45.5 in this spot.
Risk: 1.15 units to win 1 unit at DraftKings.
I will update this column throughout the week with more bets.
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks and those from the rest of the betting staff. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.
This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.
