Scott Smith’s UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac Best Bets

This weekend's UFC Fight Night is headlined by top-10 heavyweights Derrick Lewis and Serghei Spivac. The remainder of the card has quite the international appeal as the UFC will be featuring a number of Asian fighters as they close out their Road to the UFC tournament. While there should be some exciting fights, there is little big-name appeal, which also means a number of prospects making their debuts with little film to break down. Dealing with a host of untested prospects means we have to pick our spots on this card. We do just that with a straight pick and three-way parlay.

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac Best Bets

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Jeka Saragih to win (+100, BetMGM)

Anshul Jubli is a solid striker with an above-average fight IQ who often looks to initiate boxing exchanges where he shows comfort in the pocket. Jubli has a good ability to read, slip and return while in the pocket. Undefeated, Jubli shows comfort in the cage and no moment has been big enough to get him out of his comfort zone. Jubli has an above-average grappling game and may have to shoot takedowns to avoid power shots from Jeka Saragih. As a prospect with a perfect record thus far, Jubli will have a disadvantage in the experience in this matchup.

Jeka Saragih has a wealth of power in his hands as evidenced by the monster knockouts in recent fights. Saragih has finished all of his wins and will be live to do it here as well. Saragih is the more physical athlete and uses that to overwhelm his opponents. Saragih does have some question marks with his cardio but shows a “no quit” mentality even as he fades. Saragih should be the better fighter in nearly all phases and needs to avoid the early heavy boxing exchanges from Jubli and pick his shots as the fight goes on. Saragih is the bet here and is worth a look to finish inside the distance.

Risk: 1 unit on BetMGM to win 1 unit.

JeongYeong Lee/Rinya Nakamura/Da Woon Jung Parlay (+145, DraftKings)

Jeongyeong Lee vs. Yi Zha Fight Breakdown

Yi Zha comes into this fight with a wealth of experience. The problem with that experience is that it comes from the Chinese regional circuit, which has a suspect talent level that leads to padded records. With that said, he has won those fights as he should which leads him to this spot. Zha is a powerful grappler that often searches for submissions before controlling position. This leads to his opponents getting the opportunity to reset the fight to standing. Zha shows a good ability to close the distance with his striking just enough to shoot for his takedowns. He is underwhelming as a striker, though, and will be at a disadvantage in this event. Any questions as to the value of Zha's experience should be answered in this fight.

Jeongyeong Lee comes into this bout on a six-fight win streak. He does a great job using his length to maintain distance while on the feet. His striking can be wild at times as Lee looks to exchange. Those exchanges can often go from striking to brawling where his low defense leaves him open to counters in the midst of chaos. Lee will be the more dangerous striker in this matchup and will be wise to keep the action on the feet. Lee looks to be the more talented fighter when scouting film and should be the bigger fighter, which should pay off when defending takedowns.

Rinya Nakamura vs. Toshiomi Kazama Fight Breakdown

Toshiomi Kazama makes his entry into the UFC after a unanimous decision win in the tournament. He is a scrappy fighter on his feet who is willing to exchange. Kazama, through the tournament, has shown the ability to get his opponents to the mat where he consistently searches for submissions to end the fight. Kazama will likely not be able to dictate how the fight gets to the ground in this match and has trouble defending takedowns. Kazama does show an ability to scramble and shoot submissions when his back does hit the mat which is all but a certainty in this fight. Kazama has the ability to win this fight should it remain standing but will have a tough time keeping it there with Nakamura’s wrestling pedigree.

Rinya Nakamura comes into this fight with a clear advantage in the wrestling department. With a clear path to victory with his grappling, it will be important for Nakamura to show improvement in his striking, which has shown to be slow and clunky in the past. Nakamura’s wrestling should be able to outclass Kazama as he gets the fight to the ground. Nakamura will look to rain down strikes while on the ground but he will have to be cautious with Kazama’s submission attempts. Overall, Nakamura’s wrestling should be able to overwhelm Kazama en route to a decision.

Da Woon Jung vs. Devin Clark Fight Breakdown

Devin Clark is a veteran of 14 fights inside the UFC. Those fights have come with a mix of outcomes as he has just a .500 record. Clark has always flirted with success but has never been able to put things together in a consistent manner. Clark is at his best when he has the wrestling advantage, where he can use his takedowns to wear on his opponents. If Clark does not have the wrestling advantage he shows little in the way of danger should his opponents kill his primary gameplan. Clark has a negative striking differential and that should once again be the case in this fight as he will be at a disadvantage in the length department. Clark averages just over two takedowns per 15 minutes. Should he not get those, it will be a rough outing.

Da Woon Jung is no world-beater but he should be better than Clark wherever this fight takes place. Jung isn’t the most accurate striker but his pace almost doubles that of Clark. Jung should be able to use his jab and length to keep Clark at bay. Jung has shown the ability to defend takedowns at nearly a 90% clip. On the offensive grappling side, he has shown to be more efficient than Clark in his ability to get the fight to the ground. This isn’t the fight that will get anyone excited but Jung should be able to do enough to get the victory and close out the parlay.

Risk: 1 unit on DraftKings to win 1.45 units. (Playable down to +125)

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