NFL Spread and O/U Picks: Hunter's Week 1 Best Bets
I’m back! Real life took more of my time during the summer months than usual this year, but I finally sat down long enough to update rosters, make a few adjustments, and clean up my spreadsheet to hopefully allow me to get bets out a little earlier in the week and in less time on Sundays and Mondays.
The biggest adjustment made to my actual numbers for this year was a minor tweak on how I was calculating positional z-scores to produce my weekly numbers. I believe I was giving too much credit to the top few groups and too little credit to the bottom few groups in a few areas. I made these changes so they run concurrently with the old way of making numbers, so if they both align with the same side, I can fire away. If they are split on this side, I'll exercise more caution early on. I also automated more of my weekly ‘What to bet’ page to have more of the data I use for writing in one location instead of being scattered across tabs/websites. That said, I have a little over a week left before Week 1 NFL Sunday, in which I will be writing up as many Week 1 bets as I can get out.
PS: Thank you to all who have reached out over the last few days/weeks. Let’s take down the hardest betting market out there.
2025 NFL Week 1 Sides and Totals
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NFL Week 1, Bet #1: Denver Broncos -7.5 -110 v Tennessee Titans
Risk: 3.3 units to win 3 units
I come into 2025 sky high on the Denver Broncos for a few reasons. To quickly hit on them, my running data on second-year QB increases suggests that Bo Nix will be roughly .017 EPA+CPOE better than last year. They were one of only a handful of teams able to keep their OL completely intact from last year, which aids in early-season OL rankings. They lose DeVaughn Vele, who actually graded out fairly well, but add Evan Engram to ultimately provide an overall boost to the skill group grading. They boost the defense with a healthy Talanoa Hufanga, rookie Jahdae Barron, and (most importantly) Dre Greenlaw. Dre came off an Achilles injury last season to only play in 34 snaps last season, but he has been a monster since 2021. To sum it up, Inpredicable says the market is rating the Broncos as a +2.1 coming into 2025, and I have them as a +3.2.
I am starting Cam Ward at a 0 EPA+CPOE Composite score for Week 1. That may ultimately end up being a touch too high because, since 2020, only 1 rookie Week 1 starting QB has meaningfully beat that mark (Jayden Daniels). Generally, this has been one of my favorite Week 1 angles. To add insult to injury, Ward will also go up against my number 3 defense and a top 5 secondary. The Broncos finished last year as the PFF's 5th-best pass rush and return the whole DL. In 2024, Cam Ward was 12th of 86 in turnover-worthy plays when under pressure.
Altitude matters early! This compounds when the home team has a better OL/DL, and we are looking at a Broncos team ranking 4th in both sides of the trenches versus a Titans team with the 18th DL and 12th OL, optimistically. Opponents at Denver early have gone under their team totals in 62% of games in the last 25 years.
NFL Week 1, Bet #2: Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers U45 -110
Risk: 2.2 units to win 2 units
I may have been a year too early to the ‘Seattle is a good defense’ club last year. I wrote in futures articles that McDonald was going to vastly improve the defense, but they ended up running into a cluster injury problem at the DL position. After their bye week (Week 10), Seattle rocketed up to #6 in defensive EPA/Play and success rate despite playing 6 of 8 games against offenses that were in the top half of the league in EPA/Play. They only lose Jerome Baker, gain Demarcus Lawrence (net upgrade), and keep the same defensive system from the year prior. Inpredictable has this as the 17th defense coming into Week 1, and I am much higher on them than that.
Seattle weirdly fired Ryan Grubb last season for… passing too much? The Seahawks were 5th in Passing Rate Over Expectation (PROE) to end the season, but it appears Mike MacDonald wants to take a run-first approach, and new OC Klint Kubiak is likely to abide by it. Kubiak’s Saints were 25th on the year in PROE, but more importantly, were still 24th early on in the year with Derek Carr still playing. The 49ers also started 2024 by being bottom 3 in PROE through their Week 9 bye week. Unfortunately, defensive injuries across the board inflated their PROE stats through the full year (the 49ers had the 2nd most games lost to injury). I am anticipating a return to a slow pace of play by both teams in this matchup.
Sam Darnold’s performance likely decides this total. In his last two years with QB whisperers KOC and Kyle Shanahan, Darnold has had a .117 EPA+CPOE composite. In his two years prior, he had a .23 EPA+CPOE composite. I am starting this year with him at .047, so I am expecting a pretty sizable step back in his performance.
NFL Week 1, Bet #3: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 -110 v Atlanta Falcons
Risk: 2.2 units to win 2 units
This bet comes on the assumption that Tristen Wirfs, Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan, Kaleb McGrary, and Darnell Mooney are all going to be missing from Week 1 action. However, the Bucs appear to have a deep pass-catching room as Emeka Egbuka appears to look the part of someone able to better fill the WR2 role than Atlanta’s Ray Ray McCloud (and/or Casey Washington/Khadarel Hodge?).
I was most wrong last year on Baker/Liam and friends struggling as a group. They constructed the 5th-best EPA/Play offense in a year that saw a myriad of wide receiver injuries. The bad news is that Liam Coen left. The good news is they promoted Josh Grizzard, who, by all accounts, is meant to keep the offensive system continuity going forward.
My main gripe is that I think we are currently overrating Michael Penix based on his three starts last season. He finished with a .089 EPA+CPOE Composite and a .185 Adjusted EPA/Play over his 120 total throws, but in his 3 starts, he got to play the 22nd, 29th, and 31st defenses in Dropback EPA (20th, 30th, and 31st in DVOA). I took a little bit off my initial Penix rating, who will be without his blindside protector and a WR2 until he can prove me wrong with his play.
NFL Week 1, Bet #4: Houston Texans v Los Angeles Rams U44.5 -115
Risk: 2.3 units to win 2 units
The story here will be the defensive line play on both sides of the ball. The Texans come in with my 3rd-ranked DL vs the Rams’ 18th-ranked offensive line. The Rams have the 6th-best DL to open the year vs the Texans’ 32nd(!) offensive line. I think the Texans' OL struggles are mostly overblown coming into the year as a whole, but since they are only returning 1 2024 starter for Week 1, they may take a couple of weeks to show improvement.
Like the SEA/SF under yesterday, I think both of these teams will ultimately approach the season with a run first to set up the pass approach to offense. The Rams were 24th in PROE in 2024 without much changing with their offensive playing group. Nick Caley steps in as the Texans’ playcaller this season. I don’t know much about him, but I am assuming this team regresses from the 6th-highest PROE in 2024. Caley’s last stop was actually the Rams’ passing game coordinator/TE coach.
Matt Stafford didn’t play in the preseason. You may hear how this impacts QBs/offenses in having them get off to slow starts in the next week (see the Bengals every year).
NFL Week 1, Bet #5: Cleveland Browns +6 -110 v Cincinnati Bengals
Risk: 2.2 units to win 2 units
There isn’t much to gain from reading into the Browns’ 2024 ventures. Although they had one of the bigger QB upgrades in the offseason, even if by default. Jameis Winston was miles better than any of Deshaun Watson, DTR, and Bailey Zappe with a .047 EPA+CPOE Composite. They will get a Week 1 start out of Joe Flacco this year, who carried a .08 EPQ+CPOE Composite last year, and while he may not be able to keep that up for a full season, we just need one week.
I’m anticipating a big step forward from the Browns’ OL. Last year, they were impossible for me to put a number to, as it felt like each week was a game of ‘will they/won't they play’ with 4 of 5 linemen in any given week. They return all 5 OL, of which only one (Ethan Pocic) will be nursing an injury in week 1. They have the continuity factor to give them a boost, as my current 18th-best OL faces the Bengals' 28th-ranked defensive front. The run game advantage and a competent (even though not great) QB performance is likely enough to keep the Browns within striking distance, even if the Chase/Higgins tandem is good enough to ultimately give the Bengals the win.
Defensively, the Browns were hamstrung all of 2024 by their own offense. Browns’ opponents started the most drives inside the Browns' 50-yard line in the league, yet they only scored on 58% of those drives, 9th lowest in the NFL. They come in with the 12th-rated defensive front and should have a massive advantage against Cincy’s 30th-ranked OL. I think this will consistently keep the back door cover alive and well, as Cincy may struggle to kill the clock via the run game.
