NBA Player Prop Bets: The Wizards Stand No Chance Against The King

Another Sunday, another overshadowed NBA slate as we have the first round of the fantasy football playoffs. Even so, we have a lot of NBA action to break down and a number of plus-money props that jump off of the page as great value.

Regarding the process behind the plays, the suite of tools that 4for4 offers are second-to-none. I use the NBA Splits Tool to break down injury impacts and lineup changes as well as the NBA Prop Stat Explorer to look at historical data for how the player performs relative to their prop and compare it to our in-house projection. Using these alongside the Player Prop Finder to shop for the best line, 4for4 truly makes betting on NBA player props a stress-free and fun process. With the shameless plug (that I am not specifically paid for!), let’s get into the props for today.

Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (December 18, 2022)

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Tyrese Haliburton (IND) Over 10.5 Assists (+110 at DraftKings)

The newest Point God has been lighting the world on fire as a facilitator as of late and I don’t expect things to change against the Knicks. Having averaged 11.0 assists on 20.6 potential assists per game over his last 15 games, getting plus-money on an over 10.5 assist prop feels like an immediate value, especially considering the fact that the potential assist number leads the entire NBA over that span.

The Knicks have also been allowing production to the point guard position all season, allowing nearly 9.0 assists per game, obviously seeing players far less capable of facilitating an offense than Tyrese Haliburton. This game also carries a one-point spread, boding well for the potential of a full workload for Haliburton, who’s averaged 0.32 assists per minute this season. If we’re going strictly off of his per-minute rate and excluding matchup context or recent trends, he projects for 11.51 assists in a 36-minute workload. With such a strong floor, the over 10.5 at plus-money is a massive value.

Risk: 1 unit on DraftKings to win 1.1 units.

LaMelo Ball Over 3.5 Three-Pointers Made (+115 at DraftKings)

LaMelo Ball can be quite the frustrating player to bet on or roster in DFS formats, but one thing that’s been a reliable constant throughout his young career is his voluminous approach from long distance. On the season, Ball has averaged 11.6 three-point attempts per game this season, marking his third year in a row where he’s seen a drastic uptick in volume. Coming into the league attempting 5.1 threes per game as a rookie, he saw that jump to 7.5 last season and now to the aforementioned 11.6 attempts per game we’ve seen this year.

Minutes have been one of the pain points for Ball this season given his struggles with injury, but Rick Camp pointed out in Discord how effective Ball has been with a full workload, averaging 5.3 threes on 12.3 attempts in four games with a full workload this season. Those numbers line up rather identically to his 4.8 threes on 12.7 attempts per 36 minutes this season, too. With Denver ranking in the bottom-third of the NBA in three-point defense, this is a matchup ripe for the picking for Ball.

Risk: 1 unit on DraftKings to win 1.15 units.

LeBron James Over 14.5 Rebounds + Assists (+100 at FanDuel)

With Anthony Davis having already been ruled out on Sunday, sportsbooks expect LeBron James to shoulder a massive workload and have adjusted accordingly. The one prop where they may not have adjusted enough though is James’ rebounds + assists (RA) prop at plus-money.

James has played three games this season without Davis. For the most part, his rates remain rather consistent. He does, however, see a healthy uptick on the boards, going from 8.1 rebounds per game to 11.7, while averaging four assists per game. Taking per-game averages alone, this prop at plus-money is already a value as he’s averaged nearly 16 combined rebounds and assists without Davis.

James’ 80 touches per game lead the entire Lakers team, but it’s been Davis who has moved into second on the season, posting 69.1 touches per game. With nearly 70 touches per game being vacated, James will naturally take over a large fraction of them as the offensive facilitator. With 100 touches being a realistic outcome for James today, he could absolutely crush this prop with legitimate triple-double upside given his rates and the absence of Davis, let alone against a spiraling Wizards team.

Risk: 1 unit on FanDuel to win 1 unit.

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