NBA Player Prop Bets: VanVleet Slyer Than a Fox
A change in a role can completely alter the ecosystem a player exists in and the nature of his statistical profile. That takes time for books to catch up, though, and today's props look to take advantage of that.
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Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (January 25, 2023)
Fred VanVleet Over 20.5 Points (-108 at FanDuel)
With the Raptors at a crossroads as a franchise, and Fred VanVleet’s name mentioned in trade rumors, he is playing some of his best ball of the season.
In his last four games, VanVleet has gone over this prop each time and is averaging 31.3 points. Part of the reason he has been clearing this number by such a wide margin is the hot shooting from deep, shooting 48.7% on 9.8 attempts, but it is also volume as well. In the last four games, VanVleet is averaging 20.8 shots, compared to 14.0 in the rest of January.
That is reflected in his touch time as well. In January before the last four games, VanVleet was averaging 5.3 seconds time of possession and 3.39 dribbles per possession. In the last four games, those numbers have gone up to 7.5 seconds time of possession and 4.79 dribbles per possession. With most of the offense bogging down, the ball is being put in VanVleet’s hands to create.
The Raptors are in Sacramento to take on the offensive-minded Kings, whose games average 243.03 points in the last two weeks. A game with a lack of defense and at least league average pace would lead to a better-than-normal scoring environment from what VanVleet is used to. In their first matchup this season, VanVleet went for 39 points and 25 shots and the Kings are allowing the third-most points to point guards the last two weeks. The scoring environment and the matchup bring value to VanVleet in this spot.
Risk: 1.08 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit. (Playable to -120)
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