NBA Player Prop Bets: VanVleet Slyer Than a Fox
A change in a role can completely alter the ecosystem a player exists in and the nature of his statistical profile. That takes time for books to catch up, though, and today's props look to take advantage of that.
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Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (January 25, 2023)
Fred VanVleet Over 20.5 Points (-108 at FanDuel)
With the Raptors at a crossroads as a franchise, and Fred VanVleet’s name mentioned in trade rumors, he is playing some of his best ball of the season.
In his last four games, VanVleet has gone over this prop each time and is averaging 31.3 points. Part of the reason he has been clearing this number by such a wide margin is the hot shooting from deep, shooting 48.7% on 9.8 attempts, but it is also volume as well. In the last four games, VanVleet is averaging 20.8 shots, compared to 14.0 in the rest of January.
That is reflected in his touch time as well. In January before the last four games, VanVleet was averaging 5.3 seconds time of possession and 3.39 dribbles per possession. In the last four games, those numbers have gone up to 7.5 seconds time of possession and 4.79 dribbles per possession. With most of the offense bogging down, the ball is being put in VanVleet’s hands to create.
The Raptors are in Sacramento to take on the offensive-minded Kings, whose games average 243.03 points in the last two weeks. A game with a lack of defense and at least league average pace would lead to a better-than-normal scoring environment from what VanVleet is used to. In their first matchup this season, VanVleet went for 39 points and 25 shots and the Kings are allowing the third-most points to point guards the last two weeks. The scoring environment and the matchup bring value to VanVleet in this spot.
Risk: 1.08 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit. (Playable to -120)
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Draymond Green Over 15.5 Rebounds + Assists (-102 at FanDuel)
In the regular season, especially with someone like Draymond Green, worrying about motivation and being engaged can be frustrating but there is no doubt about his intentions tonight.
The Warriors host the Grizzlies tonight and between the playoff series last year and some of the talking that has gone on throughout the season, there is little doubt a fully engaged Draymond Green will be on the court tonight. The Warriors being elite at home helps, plus Steven Adams is out. That means either Brandon Clarke or more likely Xavier Tillman will get the minutes at center. Not to mention Green had 13 rebounds and 13 assists on Christmas Day against these Grizzlies.
In the two games since becoming the starting center for the Warriors, Green has 18 and 22 rebounds + assists (RA) and has gone over this line in five of his last six games. Also, Green is averaging 14.8 RA at home versus 13.0 on the road. These numbers are mostly while playing power forward. Either starting option for the Grizzlies in the middle should keep Green near the basket as well since neither shoots well from deep, so Green should be in position for plenty of boards. Green has also performed the best this year with extra rest. With two days of rest, he averages 17.2 RA and that is while mostly playing power forward—the opportunities should only rise at center. The energy will be high at the Chase Center and Draymond Green thrives in those environments, leading to an over on this prop.
Risk: 1.02 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit. (Playable to -120)
Walker Kessler Over 20.5 Points + Rebounds (-108 at FanDuel)
Going back to the well with the impressive rookie who is contributing defensively, on the glass and as time has gone on, more of a role in the offense as well.
Since entering the starting lineup, Walker Kessler is averaging 11.7 points and 11.3 rebounds. He has gone over this prop in 5-of-7 games. This combination is a valuable prop because there is upward mobility on both ends of it. On the glass since starting, Kessler has recorded at least nine rebounds in six of the seven games and is averaging 20.6 rebounding chances. That volume provides a great floor. With a high of 21 rebounds against the Timberwolves, he has a high ceiling.
In terms of scoring, the rebounds help with putback opportunities that lead to points but it is also taking advantage of dump-offs or lobs. Kessler is always near the basket so the lack of shots should not be as concerning for him when he shoots at such a high percentage from the field due to his proximity to the rim. Kessler has scored 13+ in five of his seven most recent starts and has peaked at 20 against those same Timberwolves.
Utah is in Portland to take on Jusuf Nurkic and the Blazers. While Nurkic is a nice name, the game has not held up as much this season. Portland is allowing the most points to centers in the last two weeks and is in the middle third of the NBA from stopping them on the glass. The plus-matchup is not being taken into consideration enough and brings value to this combination for Kessler.
Risk: 1.08 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit. (Playable to -122)
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