NBA Player Prop Bets: Portis Pulls from Deep

There is an enjoyable seven-game slate tonight with a lot of fun cross-conference matchups and a big central division battle between the Cavaliers and Bulls that is critical for eastern conference playoff positioning. Fiire up League Pass on that second screen and enjoy the action.

In betting, as well as fantasy sports, usually, the biggest indicator of the likelihood of a good performance is volume. The more attempts a player has to reach a goal or not reach a goal goes a long way in determining the value of a prop. In prep, the other contextual factors that lead to valuable bets should come as ways to accent the volume of a prop or disprove a trend with the change in volume. The props today are targeting those discrepancies.

To help determine where that extra volume and value is hiding, utilize 4for4’s Player Prop Tool and Prop Explorer, and get involved in the Discord chat. Let’s make it a profitable Saturday.

*Betting lines accurate at time of publication.

FanDuel Player Prop Bets (March 12, 2022)

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Bobby Portis Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (+146)

If there’s one thing the world has learned about Bobby Portis in his career resurgence in Milwaukee is that he is not shy. If given an open shot, he will not hesitate to pull, and that plays into this prop.

With teams more focused on slowing Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, and Jrue Holiday, Portis is a capable scorer who becomes a preferred option for defenses to allow to go off. In a matchup today against the Warriors, that will likely entail more opportunities from deep. The Warriors are allowing the most points to centers by a country mile over the last two weeks but that is a little misleading. In that time, they faced Nikola Jokic twice, Karl-Anthony Towns and LeBron James dropped 56 points on them. Still, over the last month and two months of games, the Warriors have been top-five in allowing points to centers and threes.

Portis is shooting 41.7% from deep on the season and has been red hot since the All-Star break, launching at a 49.0% clip. The only variable has been volume and that has been based a lot on the matchup. Kevon Looney is not too keen on getting too far away from the basket and drops under screens all the time, especially with the prospects of Antetokounmpo looming if he is not involved in the action. The Warriors have allowed the sixth-most three-point attempts in the last two weeks as well.

That played out in the first game between the teams where Portis got up 16 shots and went 4-7 from behind the arc. Portis has gone over this prop in three of seven since the break, which is part of the reason the juice is where it is but when Portis has gotten at least seven attempts, as he should today, he has gone over this every time since the break.

Risk: 1 unit on FanDuel to win 1.46 units. (Playable to +110)

Kyle Lowry Over 7.5 Assists (-115)

Kyle Lowry has really struggled to find his footing in terms of finding his own offense since returning to the lineup three games ago but has been setting others up. With three rotation players being ruled out early for tonight’s game, there is extra volume to be had.

In his three games back, Lowry has averaged 8.3 assists on 12.3 potential assists. Those numbers were with some combination of Jimmy Butler, Victor Oladipo and Caleb Martin, who are all out for today’s game. Compared to a lot of injury situations where there is a lot of projection with little true sample size to see where usage will go when a star player is out, this is an instance where there is a bit of a road map.

In 19 games this year where Lowry played and Butler did not, Lowry averaged 9.01 assists on 17.25 potential assists. With the other missing pieces as well, it is fair to expect Lowry will have more flexibility to play extra minutes if necessary with that many rotation players out. One of the strengths of the Heat is having depth and depth that can shoot. Even without Oladipo, Martin and Butler, they are still able to plug in guys who can shoot and are more dependant on getting set up like Max Strus, or more lineups with Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson together. This could lead to an increased value in each potential assist for Lowry.

Risk: 1.15 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit (Playable to -124)

DraftKings Player Prop Bets (March 12, 2022)

Dejounte Murray Over 2.5 Steals + Blocks (+130)

Dejounte Murray has been getting plenty of praise this season for how he has taken over the Spurs' offense but his defense is what initially got him minutes and has been a steady part of his game. His length as a point guard with a 6’0” wingspan has allowed him to stay in pick many pockets this season.

Murray is averaging 2.4 steals plus blocks on the season. In the last two weeks against some of the higher volume point guards in the league like Donovan Mitchell, LaMelo Ball, Ja Morant, and De’Aaron Fox, Murray has upped the steals plus blocks average to 3.3. Enter that matchup today against Tyrese Haliburton, who has been that style of point guard since joining the Pacers.

Haliburton is averaging 3.9 turnovers per game the last two weeks and will not have Malcolm Brogdon in the lineup to be the secondary playmaker, meaning even more responsibility and likely more ball-handling will fall on Haliburton.

Murray does not get many blocks but with no alt lines available, the best way to get value on the number was to take the combo, get the number up to 2.5 and take the plus money.

Risk: 1 unit on DraftKings to win 1.3 units (Playable to +100)

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