NBA Player Prop Bets: No Magic Show Paolo Banchero
This weekend is (obviously) different in the sporting world, as there are only two NBA games on Sunday to accommodate for the Super Bowl, leading us to a nine-game slate on Saturday. I outlined my three favorite NBA player props for Saturday’s slate below.
Regarding the process behind the plays, the suite of tools that 4for4 offers are second-to-none. I use the NBA Splits Tool to break down injury impacts and lineup changes and the NBA Prop Stat Explorer to look at historical data for how the player performs relative to their prop and compare it to our in-house projection. Using these alongside the Player Prop Finder to shop for the best line, 4for4 makes betting on NBA player props a stress-free and fun process. With the shameless plug (that I am not explicitly paid for!), let’s get into the props for today.
Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (February 11, 2023)
Julius Randle Over 10.5 Rebounds (-118 at FanDuel)
Fewer teams have seen a slide relative to their early-season performance quite like the Jazz, who started as one of the hottest teams in basketball and ended up selling key rotational pieces at the deadline after tanking down the standings. Part of their fall from grace has been their lack of interior defense and struggles on the glass. While Walker Kessler has turned into a gem for the team, they still rank 26th in overall defensive efficiency and 26th in offensive rebounds allowed (11.4) per game.
This bodes incredibly well for Julius Randle, who should already be looking at a near-40-minute role with Mitchell Robinson out. Since Robinson went down in mid-January, Randle has been a force on the glass, averaging a team-high 17.2 rebounding chances per game while posting 11.5 rebounds per game. This is an incremental uptick over his season-long averages of 17.0 rebounding chances and 10.9 rebounds per game, showing he has a bit higher of a ceiling with Robinson off the floor.
The six-point spread indicates this game could be rather close throughout, so I expect a full workload from Randle and a ton of rebounding opportunities, especially with the Jazz on the second leg of a back-to-back, making him one of my favorite targets on the slate.
Risk: 1.18 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit.
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