Game Flowbotics: Week 6 Picks Against the Spread
Monday Night Football delivered a frustrating end to last week’s picks, with the Ravens failing to cover against the Colts. The silver lining is it was the type of bad beat that reinforced my read going into the game. Baltimore clearly had enough firepower to win that game by a touchdown or more, but the circumstances of how the game played out killed my pick of BAL (-6.5). Hello darkness variance, my old friend.
Now I get to decide what lessons to take away from the loss. How much does it matter that the Ravens start slow seemingly every game? How much does it matter that they have the explosive ability to come back from a 16-point deficit and win by six? Those sorts of “personality traits” for a team provide interesting context when looking at the raw efficiency and pace stats from Football Outsiders in the Game Flowbotics spreadsheet. I say “interesting context” instead of “good context” because separating signal from noise when it comes to team narratives can be risky. In making my weekly over/under and against-the-spread picks in this series, there will continue to be times when I wade into the cloudy waters between fact and narrative, but I will ultimately try to err on the side of data because it’s easier to tease out where its variance comes from.
Accountability
I went 4-3-1 with my picks last week for a gain of 0.74 units. Year to date, my record is 23-22-1 and I’m down 1.3 units. Slowly but surely, I’m climbing out of the hole I dug for myself in Weeks 2 and 3. As you’ll see below, there are a couple of matchups this week where I’m betting both the point spread and the total. Those sorts of matchups where I have a strong read will hopefully help me get back into the black sooner rather than later. Of course, that assumes my strong reads are also good reads, which isn’t a given, so I could be risking more only to end up deeper in the red. At the moment, though, I like all the angles I’m about to lay out, so fingers crossed I can end up on the better side of variance this time around.
Week 6 Game Flowbotics
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Here’s this week’s worksheet:
For background on Game Flowbotics and information on how to use the spreadsheet, check out my first article in this series and the Game Flowbotics primer.
As always, this tool is not a model. It isn’t going to tell us who to pick. Instead, it’s a visualization resource to help us gather information and compare opposing forces in NFL matchups. It’s up to us to translate those considerations into picks on our own. With that in mind, let’s get to my favorite angles this week.
Week 6 Best Bets
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles
The over/under on this game opened around 50 points, and it’s been bet up from there because Tampa Bay has been a pass funnel on defense, and because both teams rank top-four in situation neutral pace this season. However, I don’t see Jalen Hurts as the type of quarterback to punish this particular pass funnel. The Bucs rank third in run defense DVOA, thanks in large part to a defensive line ranked third in adjusted line yards, so the scrambling ability from Hurts we love so much in fantasy should be stifled to some extent. As a result, he’ll need to be more accurate with his pass attempts, and I don’t trust him in that regard.
Meanwhile, the normally pass-happy Bucs appear to have a nice matchup for their running game. They rank ninth in rushing DVOA and third in adjusted line yards on offense, while Philly ranks 23rd in rushing DVOA and 28th in adjusted line yards on defense. I don’t expect Tampa to abandon the pass by any means, but they could give Tom Brady a bit of a break and lean more heavily on their running game on a short week of practice. I would have been more interested in the over if it had stayed near 50 points, but since the line has moved, I’m going under.
Pick: Under (52.5) -110 on DraftKings/PointsBet/Caesars — risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions
The Bengals are coming off a tough overtime loss to Green Bay, but a matchup with Detroit is just what the doctor ordered for a Cincinnati bounce-back. The Lions rank 27th in overall DVOA and 29th in defensive DVOA. They’ve lost their five games so far by an average of eight points as a result. With Joe Mixon still nursing a high-ankle sprain, this matchup is the perfect opportunity for the Bengals to air it out early to build a lead, then salt the game away as necessary against Detroit’s 28th-ranked run defense.
Credit to the Lions for playing hard all season and keeping their games close, at least relative to expectations. With so many injuries piling up for Detroit’s offense—they’re down another receiver in Quintez Cephus and they’ve now lost center Frank Ragnow—I just can’t envision them hanging around against a surprisingly frisky Bengals defense, especially when that defense’s strength (seventh in DVOA and fourth in adjusted line yards against the run) directly contradicts the Lions’ preferred method of attack on the ground. I was ready to lay more points on the Bengals with the hook at 3.5, but the line might still be available at three if you’re willing to eat more vig. Furthermore, Cincinnati and Detroit rank 31st and 27th, respectively, in situation neutral pace, so I also like the under.
Picks: CIN (-3) -125 at PointsBet — risk 1.25 units to win 1 unit, bet up to (-4); Under (48.5) -110 at DraftKings — risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants
All the fantasy managers who picked up Devontae Booker hoping for a bye week fill-in are due for a rude awakening. The Giants' run-blocking stinks (31st in Adjusted Line Yards), and the Rams’ defensive line has been strong against the run (12th in Adjusted Line Yards). It’s not as if New York can pivot to the passing game because they’ll likely have Mike Glennon under center in place of injured starter Daniel Jones. In the end, I expect the Giants to have trouble scoring points, while the Rams’ top-six offense should have no trouble doing so against a defense that ranks 26th overall, 22nd against the pass and 26th against the run.
Picks: LAR (-10.5) -110 at FanDuel/Caesars — risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit; Under (47.5) -110 at DraftKings/FanDuel — risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Football Team
An interesting zig-zag pattern is emerging for the Chiefs. When they are favored against good offenses (see their previous games against the Browns, Ravens, Chargers and Bills), we want to take the points because Kansas City’s last-ranked defense is a huge liability. When they face more suspect offenses like the Eagles in Week 4 or this week’s game against the Football Team, though, we want to lay the wood with the Chiefs because more limited passers like Jalen Hurts and Taylor Heinicke can’t keep pace with Patrick Mahomes. That should be especially true in this contest, with Mahomes squaring off against Washington’s 29th-ranked pass defense and 24th-ranked pass rush. There’s a case for Washington to establish the run on offense and try to keep the ball away from the Chiefs, but Antonio Gibson is hobbled and Heinicke is simply too prone to mistakes, which are deadly against Mahomes and Andy Reid.
Pick: KC (-6.5) -115 at DraftKings — risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit.
Week 6 Rapid-Fire Picks
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
Aaron Rodgers and company face a Bears defense ranked fourth against the pass and fifth overall by DVOA. On the other side of the matchup, Chicago’s offense just isn’t good. They rank 31st in DVOA and 30th in DAVE. Add in how both these teams play at slow situation neutral paces, plus this season’s trend of home underdog matchups going under, and I expect a low-scoring outcome.
Pick: Under (45.0) -110 at PointsBet/Caesars — risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Despite losing to Baltimore on Monday night, I have to admit the Colts offense looked a lot more functional than it did earlier in the season. Carson Wentz finally appears healthy and caught up on the time he missed to injury in the preseason, so my betting spree against the Colts probably needs to end soon... just not this week! Indianapolis doesn’t have any incentive to turn this game into a blowout, especially on a short week. Plus, Houston’s defense has been solid—15th overall and 20th against the pass—and their offense gets to face Indy’s 30th-ranked pass defense, which means the backdoor should be open if this game gets to garbage time. Still, I have to hold my nose when betting on the Texans, which means I can only grasp half a unit with my other hand to make this pick.
Pick: HOU (+9.5) -110 at Caesars — risk 0.55 units to win 0.5 units.
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos
I really liked this line early in the week when Denver was only favored by three. Since then, Jon Gruden has been ousted (good riddance), and the line has shifted further toward the Broncos. In a vacuum, I still like Denver because they’re home at elevation and clearly the better team by the numbers. But the line movement coupled with the emotional narrative of Raiders players now being free of their bigoted head coach now makes me want to stay away.
Pick: DEN (-3) -110 on DraftKings — risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
Good luck, everyone!
Please follow @GameFlowbotics on Twitter to get each week’s Game Flowbotics spreadsheet as soon as it’s available, and feel free to contact me there or @gregsauce to discuss the spreadsheet or my picks. For the most up-to-date picks subscribe to 4for4’s Discord. This sheet, from Dan Rivera, tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff). Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.
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