Connor Allen: 3 Conference Championship NFL Player Props I'm Betting

As the legalization of sports betting continues to explode, more and more people are diving into a new way of speculating on sports. For those just starting off, I broke down some of the basics in my gambling 101 piece. Among every category of bets, player props remain the most beatable in the long run. Last year, I hit 59% of my bets for +35 units on the season. The two years prior were much of the same, hitting 57% and 58%, respectively, of my player props for profitable seasons. This year, I'm up over 35 units. I’ve already fired off a handful of bets for the Conference Championship and will be adding more here. If you are a betting subscriber, it is vital to be in our Discord. We have it set up so you can get push notifications for the plays our staff posts—go to role assign, then scroll up and click the little circus emoji under “Prop Stars.” If you want general NFL betting notifications, go to role assign and then click the football emoji.

Divisional Round Review: I got some things very right last week like Jimmy Garoppolo’s reluctance and inability to throw the ball. This also made for a nice goose egg for Brandon Aiyuk, cashing both of those unders. I also got a few things very wrong like Allen Lazard. I double-dipped on him thinking he would have a bigger role and his rapport with Aaron Rodgers was trending upwards. In hindsight, however, it was an egregious mistake as he was only targeted once (on 29 Rodgers attempts). Life goes on and we have another glorious Sunday to win some money upon us.

More Player Props: Ryan Noonan

Conference Championship Player Prop Bets

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We have already gotten down on a bunch of props and most of the lines have moved already. If for some reason you are still reading this article but are not active in Discord I highly recommend you change that!

Joe Burrow Over 300 Passing Yards (+105 at PointsBet)

The more I dig into this game the more I foresee the Bengals going pass-heavy and likely having success against a Chiefs team ranked seventh-worst in adjusted sack rate and 30th in overall sack rate. They also could be without Tyrann Mathieu. Joe Burrow threw for 446 passing yards last time he faced the Chiefs. He has 300+ passing yards in five of his last seven games and the Bengals are very likely to go pass-heavy here as 7-point underdogs. If we take a different angle that looks at how he has been played when he has been forced to pass...

300+ Yard Games (Based on Volume):

• 41+ attempts: 1/1
• 37+ attempts: 5/7
• 32+ attempts: 7/11

With all that being said, there are multiple ways to attack this in the betting market. If you don't have PointsBet I would just play the over at 286.5 at DraftKings or 287.5 at FanDuel with the -115 juice.

Risk: 1 unit to win 1.05 units on Burrow over 300 passing yards at PointsBet.

Patrick Mahomes & Joe Burrow to Combine for 600+ Passing Yards (+150 at FanDuel & DraftKings)

In addition to Burrow over 300 passing yards, another bet I really like is Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow to combine for 600+ passing yards at +150 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The reality is that one team will likely be playing from behind, forcing the other to throw more. Playing catch-up for some teams is a challenge but certainly not for either of these gunslingers. With so much explosive capability between the two teams, the odds of one of these quarterbacks touching 400 yards seems much more likely than a normal playoff game. I wouldn't be surprised if they combined for close to 700 rather than 600.

I would also consider “pointsbetting” the over at 583 combined passing yards between the two. On paper, your total risk looks aggressive with a hypothetical 250x downside. On the flip-side, I really think that there is 250x upside here. Bets like that don’t come around very often.

Risk: 1 unit to win 1.5 units on Burrow and Mahomes to combine for 600+ passing yards at DraftKings.

Elijah Mitchell Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at Draftkings)

Elijah Mitchell has 10+ carries in 11 games this season. In those 11 games, he ran for more than 68.5 rushing yards in eight of them (72%). He now draws a Rams for the third time this season. In his previous two games he rushed for 85 and 91 yards. He couldn't get going last week, which I think is why this line is so low, but the reality is he should see close to 20 carries. This line opened at 75-77 in most spots and has been bet down all the way to 68.5. I can't say I'm surprised but now I think we have a decent buying opportunity. The 49ers are also fully convinced that Trent Williams is going to play. We have Mitchell projected for 89 rushing yards.

Risk: 1.15 units to win 1 unit at DraftKings.

For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks and those from the rest of the betting staff. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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