Ryan Noonan: 2 Divisional Round NFL Player Props I'm Betting

I'm constantly railing on our ability, or inability, to consistently beat a market as liquid as NFL sides. Player props, though? Player props are an entirely different story.

If you're here, it's unlikely you're a casual player. You put in the necessary time and effort it takes to win money or humiliate your friends, ideally both. I'm the same way. I don't play many traditional redraft leagues these days, but I'm constantly thinking about game environments and player usage, and these thoughts correlate so well with the prop market.

There are similarities prop betting has with traditional markets like sides and totals. First, the best way to consistently put yourself in a position to realize positive expected value (+EV) long-term is to beat the closing line number. Secondly, and this is more difficult with sides than props, but you need to have better numbers than the market. With player props, that means having the best projections. Projections that give you an edge against the field. Well, this is 4for4. We have the best projections, full stop.

Don't forget to join our Discord chat. It's the best way to maximize your subscription at 4for4, and it's easy to set up push notifications so you can get pinged as soon as one of our contributors posts a pick. Also, tune into our Prop Drop Show. Connor and I are joined by PropStarz, and we go around the horn, sharing our favorite props for the week. The best part is the back half of the show, where we take all the listener/viewer questions that we have time for. If you miss it live, catch the replay on YouTube.

Let's dig in.

More Player Props: Connor Allen

*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.

Divisional Round Player Prop Bets

[subscribe_betting]

Deebo Samuel Over 38.5 Rushing Yards (-122, FanDuel)

I posted this in our Discord on Wednesday when it was 35.5, but I'd play it up to 40.5.

After the first nine weeks, Deebo Samuel averaged over 10 targets per game, topping 93 yards receiving in five of his eight games. He only carried the ball six times for 22 yards up to that point, and then Kyle Shanahan unleashed the game's most dynamic weapon. A mix of equal part injuries and poor performances, Shanahan slowly started increasing Samuel's backfield snaps, creating a new look for an already creative offensive unit. The results speak for themselves.

Per PFF, Samuel's backfield snaps have resulted in 0.337 EPA per play. For context, Tampa Bay led the league in EPA per play this season at 0.143. His broken tackle per attempt rate leads the league, and it's the highest rate of any ball-carrier ever charted at PFF. Deebo is a priority for this offense, with at least 13 opportunities in each of the past four games. The matchup against Green Bay's porous run defense (28th in explosive rush rate, 30th in EPA and success rate allowed) is exploitable. If the cold weather and injury issues prevent Jimmy Garoppolo from passing the ball to Samuel, look for them to get creative with him on the ground. In their last two must-win games, he's gone for 45 and 72 yards, respectively, on the ground.

Risk: 1.22 units to win 1 unit on FanDuel.

Ja'Marr Chase Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-115, BetMGM)

I posted this in our Discord on Wednesday at 75.5, but I'd play it up to 79.5.

The Bengals have begun to skew a bit more pass-centric of late. Over the past four weeks, their pass rate over expectation (PROE) is up 8% when the game is within three points, and up 14% when they're leading by more than a field goal. That's encouraging. Over that same time frame, Ja'Marr Chase has solidified his role as the team's top receiving option, with double-digit targets (10, 12, and 12) in each of the team's past three games with the starters.

The Titans have struggled to stop vertical passing offenses all season, ranking 28th in explosive pass rate allowed over the season's final eight weeks. Joe Burrow isn't getting on a plane to head back home wishing he had thrown the ball to Ja'Marr Chase more. He's what makes this offense tick.

Risk: 1.15 units to win 1 unit on BetMGM.

For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks and those from the rest of the betting staff. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.