Top 5 Week 14 Matchups

Dec 07, 2021
Top 5 Week 14 Matchups

Schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA, is 4for4’s answer to biased statistics. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an "apples-to-apples" manner. As the season marches on, the data will change and now that we are past Week 12, the numbers shown will be based on a rolling 10-week data set.

Each week until the end of the fantasy football season I will be looking at five matchups to target or avoid based on updated aFPA data.

Week 14 Matchups

Taysom Hill @ New York Jets

You may have heard that Taysom Hill finished as a QB1 Week 13 despite throwing four (for4) interceptions. He gets the 30th-ranked defense against quarterbacks Week 14 in a road matchup against the Jets. There is concern with Hill because he will be playing with a ‘mallet finger,’ the same injury plaguing Russell Wilson but not nearly as severe for Hill. It could be a YAC week for Hill’s passing yards, especially if Alvin Kamara returns. The Saints' offense is in a good matchup in Week 14, but Hill’s rushing upside makes him especially tantalizing.

Bears Quarterback @ Green Bay Packers

Hard pass on Andy Dalton and/or Justin Fields Week 14. Dalton threw four interceptions last week and Fields continues to nurse cracked ribs. That is the less bad part. Green Bay is coming off a bye and get a home game on national television. The Packers allow the fourth-fewest schedule-adjusted points to opposing signal callers and could be getting back key defensive players. Green Bay opened as 12.5-point favorites.

Rex Burkhead vs. Seattle Seahawks

Burkhead has survived the revolving door in the Texans backfield and is rewarded with a matchup against the 31st-ranked rush defense according to aFPA. David Johnson (illness) should be back in Week 14, but he has been outplayed by Burkhead the past few games where they were both active and saw a lot of work despite a blowout loss in Week 13. Jonathan Taylor, Myles Gaskin, Miles Sanders, Damien Harris, and Rhamondre Stevenson are on bye Week 14, making Burkhead almost a necessary evil.

Hunter Renfrow @ Kansas City Chiefs

Nothing but love for Hunter Renfrow as he has broken out in 2021, but his Week 14 matchup makes him tough to trust as a ceiling play. The Chiefs rank fourth in wide receiver aFPA and held Renfrow to his second-lowest yardage output since Vegas’ Week 7 bye in their Week 10 matchup in Sin City. Kansas City’s secondary has performed a 180 and is playing elite defense after a brutal start to 2021. Renfrow salvaged his Week 10 with a touchdown and will have to find paydirt Week 14 to have a successful game and keep the Raiders’ playoff hopes alive.

Gerald Everett @ Houston Texans

Can Everett make up for being Jen Eakins’ Week 13 Festivus? Credit where credit is due, Everett did have four catches against San Francisco, but only seven yards. Houston is 25th in aFPA against opposing tight ends and even made Anthony Firkser fantasy-relevant as recent as Week 11. The Texans allow an average of five receptions, 54.42 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns per game. Prior to Week 13, Everett had at least three receptions and 37 yards in three games since Seattle’s bye.

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