Week 13 NFL Pick'em and Survivor Pool Picks
This week’s slate features only a few massive spreads and plenty of value to choose from.
With the help of TeamRankings' customizable tools and data, I’ll go over the best value picks for Week 13, along with the top suggestions for survivor pools. With this info, you should be able to make smart decisions in order to get back on track or keep you going if you’ve had a strong start to the season thus far.
Editor’s Note: TeamRankings subscribers win football pools three times as often as expected, thanks to customized picks designed for your pool's size and rules. No one else does it.
Week 12 Recap
It was the worst week of the season for me in this column, as my picks went 2-3. Only Buffalo and the Patriots came through, while the Cowboys, Eagles and Vikings all lost their respective contests.
That makes my full-season total 38-22 for this column. Onto Week 13, where hopefully we continue to succeed in both pick'em and survivor formats.
Favorite Favorites
L.A. Rams vs. Jaguars
This game features a massive spread of 13 points, which could be a tad high, but for picking purposes this should be a slam dunk. The Rams should get back on track and the Jags just don’t have the weaponry to keep up.
TeamRankings gives 86% win odds for L.A. at home and the public is on board 98% of the time, so you’ll win or lose with your pool.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Broncos
The Chiefs are coming off a restful bye and Denver is fresh off a win against the Chargers. This AFC West showdown is always a fun one, but Kansas City should come out with the win at home.
The Chiefs are 10-point favorites with 79% victory odds, via both TeamRankings and Vegas. The public is backing the Chiefs 95% of the time, so you’ll win or lose with most of your pool.
Sensibly-Priced Favorite
Indianapolis Colts @ Texans
The Colts are a 9.5-point favorite against Houston this week, with 77% win odds via both Vegas and TeamRankings. The Texans are allowing 135.6 rushing yards per game and Indy has arguably the best RB in the NFL in Jonathan Taylor.
The public is rolling with Colts 91% of the time, which is lower than the Bucs (94%) and Chiefs (95%), whose games boast similar spreads.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Falcons
Tom Brady tends to play worse on the road but I don’t think it matters in this one. The Bucs are an 11.5-point favorite in Atlanta this week and are given 84% win odds by TeamRankings.
The Falcons sit 26th in QB schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) and are 22nd in WR aFPA. Tom Brady will exploit them in this contest. The public is picking Tampa Bay 94% of the time—high, but not as high as the Rams (98%) and Chiefs (95%), two other teams playing in games with double-digit spreads.
Value Favorite
Philadelphia Eagles @ Jets
Philly burned me last week but I am back for more in their matchup against the Jets. The Eagles are a 6.5-point road favorite in this one with 74% odds to win.
Jalen Hurts and the offense should bounce back against New York, while rookie Zach Wilson is primed for a key turnover that could seal the deal. Only 81% of public bettors are taking the Eagles here, so there is value in the pick.
Survivor Picks for Week 13
Win Odds: Top 5 Week 13 Picks
Stating the obvious here, but higher is better when it comes to win odds. Everything else being equal, you want to pick the team with the best likelihood of making it through.
Here are the five safest teams this week, according to the TeamRankings Data Grid model (chances to win in parentheses):
- L.A. Rams vs. Jaguars (85%, 13-point favorites)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Falcons (82%, 11.5-point favorites)
- Kansas City Chiefs vs. Broncos (80%, 10-point favorites)
- Indianapolis Colts @ Texans (77%, 9.5-point favorites)
- Arizona Cardinals @ Bears (76%, 7.5-point favorites)
Pick Popularity
Diversifying your survivor picks from the crowd is an advantageous strategy, as the pool winnings can increase significantly if your pick hits and another popular pick loses.
Here are the five most popular survivor picks for Week 13 (referencing Data Grid mentioned earlier):
- Minnesota Vikings @ Lions (20%)
- L.A. Rams vs. Jaguars (15%)
- Philadelphia Eagles @ Jets (15%)
- Kansas City Chiefs vs. Broncos (14%)
- Las Vegas Raiders vs. Football Team (8%)
Future Value
The last piece of the survivor pool puzzle is future value. If you fire off a powerful team in Week 13, you won’t be able to use them later.
According to TeamRankings, here are the top five teams in future value entering this week for a 100-entry standard rules pool:
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4.2)
- Buffalo Bills (3.5)
- Kansas City Chiefs (2.5)
- Arizona Cardinals (2.3)
- San Francisco 49ers (1.8)
Note: The numbers in parentheses are a proprietary rating of future value found in the TeamRankings Data Grid, which is also impacted by factors such as pool size.
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