2021 AFC North Betting Preview
My divisional preview series is designed to be a long-form extension of our Move The Line division betting breakdowns. I'll be previewing each division while providing you with insight on the best ways to bet on each team. This time, we're looking at the AFC North.
The Ravens have been perennial contenders in the John Harbaugh era. Despite outscoring their opponents by 12.9 points per game over the past two seasons, by far the highest point differential in the league, they're looking to advance to their first AFC Championship game with Lamar Jackson at the helm.
The Browns ended their run of a dozen straight losing seasons in 2020 with an 11-5 campaign that culminated with a dismantling of their division rival Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card round. They enter 2021 with depth and talent on both sides of the ball, and expectations are sky-high.
The Steelers sputtered down the stretch after an 11-0 start, holding on to win the division despite losing four of their last five. For the most part, they're running it back with a lot of the same core in 2021, but is that a good thing?
We only saw Joe Burrow for 10 games due to the knee injury that derailed his and the Bengals' season, but all signs were encouraging. Burrow's offense will need to continue to take strides forward if Zac Taylor (6-25-1 as head coach) wants to return in 2022.
More Divisional Betting Previews: AFC West | NFC West | NFC North | NFC South | AFC South | NFC East | AFC East
Baltimore Ravens Preview
[subscribe_betting]
Making the playoffs is not a goal for this Ravens team. Expectations for this club are much higher, and while that's certainly a good problem to have, it can lead to disappointment. After a shocking loss to the Titans in the 2019 divisional round, the 2020 Ravens got off to a rocky start. They found their groove down the stretch and avenged the 2019 defeat by knocking off the Titans in the 2020 Wild Card round, but they stalled out again in the divisional round against the Bills. There's a ton of organizational continuity, both in the front office and on the coaching staff, and it feels like a matter of when—not if—with this team.
| OFF DVOA RANK | OFF EPA/Play Rank | Yards/Drive Rank | Points/Drive Rank | |
| 11 | 9 | 18 | 9 | |
| 2020 record | DEF DVOA Rank | DEF EPA/Play Rank | Yards Allowed/Drive Rank | Points Allowed/Drive Rank |
| 11-5 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 4 |
Ravens Offensive Outlook
Fair or unfair, the narrative around the Ravens remains the same. If they're going to compete with the Chiefs and come out of the AFC, Lamar Jackson needs to continue to improve as a pocket passer. This year, it appears he has the best set of weapons yet if he's going to take that step forward. Rashod Bateman and Sammy Watkins come to town to supplement Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews, hopefully taking this passing game up a notch. The backbone of this offense will always be their ground game, spearheaded by Jackson, but the Ravens have not been a team capable of coming back from behind when they have to in seasons past. The offense was predictable at times last season, mixing in a heavy dose of runs with a low average depth of target (aDOT) pass in the middle of the field. Baltimore was dead-last in the league with just 25% of their pocket passing attempts occurring outside the numbers. Questions remain if that's due to Jackson's will or skill, but the injection of talent should help his cause this season.
The Ravens will have three new starters along the offensive line in Ben Cleveland, Kevin Zeitler and Alejandro Villanueva. They'll lean on Jackson, J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards on early downs, where they ran at the league's third-highest rate in neutral game scripts last season. Dobbins and Edwards cap each other's ceiling, but both backs are incredibly efficient and are bolstered by the boon that comes with playing with a run-first quarterback. Our projections think there's value in the rushing performances of all three players.
Ravens Player Props
(Prop lines from our NFL Player Prop Tool)
Ravens Defensive Outlook
The Ravens have arguably the best cornerback room in the league. Regardless of the other holes on your defense, that can go a long way in producing a winning season. Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters, Tavon Young and Jimmy Smith allow Don Martindale to play a ton of man-to-man and blitz at the league's highest rate. With Matthew Judon and Yannick Ngakoue departing in free agency, Martingale will need to continue to get creative at drumming up pressure. This is a high-floor/high-ceiling unit, good enough to hold up deep into January.
Ravens Bottom Line
The Ravens have a bit of a strange schedule. They start out with three of their first four on the road, with the only home game in September being a Week 2 matchup against the Chiefs. After their Week 4 road game in Denver, Baltimore doesn't go on the road again until Week 10. That starts another stretch of four in five on the road—a pretty uncommon travel schedule.
The Ravens are a Super Bowl contender and offer value at plus money to win this division. If Greg Roman helps Lamar Jackson get more out of the passing game, the Ravens are likely undervalued at +750 to win the AFC.
| Win Total | Ranges from 10.5-11.5 |
|---|---|
| Playoffs Y/N | YES -303 (BetMGM) No +260 Caesars |
| Win AFC | +750 (BetMGM) |
| Win Super Bowl | +1400 |
Cleveland Browns Preview
I'm still getting accustomed to the Cleveland Browns as being one of the league's best-run organizations. General Manager Andrew Berry and head coach Kevin Stefanski are analytics-friendly, both in roster construction and play calling. After the franchise's first playoff win in decades, expectations are high entering the 2021 season. Naysayers will tell you that they outperformed their Pythagorean win total by three games. They'll say that Cleveland won their first playoff game since the '90s against a decrepit Steelers team, which isn't something to brag about. They'll mention that they went 7-2 in one-score games, an unsustainable rate that is likely to regress immediately. Lastly, that the Browns are riding high after merely keeping it close in the divisional round against a Chiefs team that was missing Patrick Mahomes for most of the game. I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle.
| OFF DVOA Rank | OFF EPA/Play Rank | Yards/Drive Rank | Points/Drive Rank | |
| 9 | 6 | 11 | 12 | |
| 2020 record | DEF DVOA Rank | DEF EPA/Play Rank | Yards Allowed/Drive Rank | Points Allowed/Drive Rank |
| 11-5 | 25 | 23 | 22 | 23 |
Browns Offensive Outlook
This Browns offense has a ton of continuity. All five of their starting offensive linemen return in 2021, plus the two backups that logged the most 2020 snaps. It's a dominant group, arguably the best unit in the league. They're tasked with creating holes for the top running back duo in the game: Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Both backs are among the league leaders in broken tackle rate each season, and while they cap each other's ceiling as it relates to fantasy and the prop market, they're a great 1-2 punch in real life. We have the under on Chubb's rushing yards as a viable play, but he's so efficient that it's a stay away for me. Kevin Stefanski did an outstanding job in his rookie season as head coach, setting Baker Mayfield up for success schematically each and every week. When Odell Beckham Jr. went down in Week 7 with a knee injury, the Browns shifted to more 2TE sets. They utilized their trio of Austin Hooper, David Njoku and Harrison Bryant as both pass-catchers and extra offensive linemen depending on the play. The increased protection led Mayfield to outperform Patrick Mahomes in EPA per play from a clean pocket. With Beckham set to return and everyone else back on this side of the ball, it's easy to see why the optimism is so high.
Browns Player Props
(Prop lines from our NFL Player Prop Tool)
Browns Defensive Outlook
The Browns have sunk a ton of capital into their defense over the past two seasons, and if the core group can stay healthy, this should be one of the most improved units in football. Defensive Player of the Year candidate Myles Garrett had his 2020 interrupted by COVID-19, but he was a dominant force for the first two months of the season. Jadeveon Clowney was added to form one of the top edge duos in the game, assuming both can stay on the field. The secondary saw the largest injection of talent, stealing John Johnson and Troy Hill from the Rams. Greg Newsome was added in the first round of April's draft, and should immediately be in the mix for a key role opposite of Pro Bowler Denzel Ward. Greedy Williams and Grant Delpit, early picks in years past, are both set to return after dealing with injuries last year as well. Notre Dame's Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah is a swiss army knife who should help shore up the Browns' inability to cover tight ends over the past few years. Similar to the offensive breakdown, there's a reason for optimism on the Lake.
Browns Bottom Line
The Browns have the second-easiest schedule in the league this year. A Week 1 trip to Kansas City is a challenge to start, but they're foaming at the mouth to get back there and redeem their playoff loss. After Week 1, things lighten up. They play five of their next seven at home, hosting the Texans, Bears, Cardinals, Broncos and Steelers.
I'm in on the Browns this season as a true contender, but there's no value in their inflated numbers across the market. They've become a quasi-public team over the past three seasons, and the best way to leverage them is week-to-week when the matchup is right.
| Win Total | Over 10.5 (Sugarhouse) - Under 10.5 (DraftKings) |
|---|---|
| Playoffs Y/N | YES -200 (Caesars) No +200 (PointsBet) |
| Win AFC | +850 (Caesars) |
| Win Super Bowl | +1600 |
Pittsburgh Steelers Preview
It seems like a lifetime ago, but the Steelers got off to an 11-0 start last season. Anchored by a dominant defense and a slowly decaying Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh all but abandoned the run, opting to throw the football over and over again behind one of the league's worst offensive lines. I'm stunned it wasn't sustainable. Mixed in the 11-0 start were narrow victories against Jeff Driskel and Garrett Gilbert, and the full collapse wasn't far behind. Overall, they took advantage of their non-divisional schedule against the NFC East and AFC South, managed to go 8-2 in one-score games, and damn near recovered every one of their offensive fumbles, an impressive-but-fleeting feat. Roethlisberger had a league-high 10 potential interceptions that were either knocked down or dropped by defenders, according to Football Outsiders. With that said, have we buried the Steelers too quickly?
| OFF DVOA Rank | OFF EPA/Play Rank | Yards/Drive Rank | Points/Drive Rank | |
| 22 | 17 | 25 | 17 | |
| 2020 record | DEF DVOA Rank | DEF EPA/Play Rank | Yards Allowed/Drive Rank | Points Allowed/Drive Rank |
| 12-4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Steelers Offensive Outlook
Despite facing the fourth-easiest slate of defenses in the league according to Sharp Football, the Steelers finished 25th in yards per drive and 22nd in offensive DVOA. They've revamped their offensive line heading into the 2021 season, but revamped and improved are mutually exclusive terms. The unit is comprised of oft-injured, inexperienced veterans like Zach Banner, Kevin Dotson and Trai Turner. They waited until the third round of the draft to address this glaring need, adding Kendrick Green, who'll step right into a starting role at center.
Former quarterbacks coach Matt Canada is the new offensive coordinator for the Steelers. He'll be tasked with leveraging first-round pick Najee Harris to bring more balance to Pittsburgh's low-aDOT passing attack. If Harris stays healthy and is used as a true bell-cow back, he'll likely cruise past his initial rushing yards prop of 949.5, but that's been steamed up since it opened. I believe that Harris is an above-average talent, but if the Steelers finish dead-last in adjusted line yards again, Harris could disappoint. The pass-catching trio of Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster returns, but they cannibalize each other's upside in both fantasy and the prop market. Canada is looking to bring more play-action looks, and under-center snaps for Roethlisberger, and that should make this offense less predictable. No team used play-action less than the Steelers last season, opting to keep Big Ben in shotgun formation and focusing on a quick snap-to-throw rate.
Steelers Player Props
(Prop lines from our NFL Player Prop Tool)
Steelers Defensive Outlook
The Steelers' defense carried them last season, and will likely have to do so again if they're going to return to the playoffs. Minkah Fitzpatrick and T.J. Watt are among the upper-echelon talents at their respective positions. Both are disruptive playmakers and have the ability to flip the field for the offense on any given play. Joe Haden will be needed to anchor an otherwise questionable cornerback room. Mike Hilton and Steven Nelson are gone from last year's squad, and we're left to assume the Steelers are comfortable with in-house talent. The position was largely ignored during the offseason, so Cam Sutton, Justin Layne and James Pierre are fighting for reps in camp. Melvin Ingram was brought in to replace Bud Dupree as an edge rusher opposite of T.J. Watt, and if last year's knee injury is behind him, he'll be a solid addition to defensive coordinator Kieth Butler's blitz-heavy scheme.
Steelers Bottom Line
The Steelers have the toughest schedule in the league according to their opponent projected win total. This division plays the AFC West and NFC North this year, and the Steelers play the class of those divisions on the road. At Kansas City, at the Chargers, at Green Bay and at Minnesota. Their present for winning the division last year? They get to open the season on the road in Buffalo. Their schedule is especially difficult down the stretch, so if they're going to the playoffs, they'll need to get off to a strong start. Mike Tomlin has yet to have a losing record in 14 years at the helm, but it certainly feels within the range of outcomes in 2021.
| Win Total | Over 8.5 +130 (BetMGM) - Under 8.5 -120 (Caesars) |
|---|---|
| Playoffs Y/N | YES +170 (PointsBet) No -175 (DraftKings) |
| Win AFC | +2500 (DraftKings) |
| Win Super Bowl | +5000 (BetMGM) |
Cincinnati Bengals Preview
The early returns on Zac Taylor aren't great. If the hope was he'd execute a Sean McVay-type offense in Cincinnati after coaching under McVay in Los Angeles, we haven't seen it yet. They've been near the bottom of the league in play-action rate the past two seasons, a staple of McVay's offense, and while losing the top pick 10 games into his rookie season doesn't help, Taylor's 6-25-1 record as a head coach leaves a lot to be desired.
| OFF DVOA Rank | OFF EPA/Play Rank | Yards/Drive Rank | Points/Drive Rank | |
| 29 | 26 | 30 | 26 | |
| 2020 record | DEF DVOA Rank | DEF EPA/Play Rank | Yards Allowed/Drive Rank | Points Allowed/Drive Rank |
| 4-11-1 | 27 | 26 | 21 | 20 |
Bengals Offensive Outlook
The decision to draft Ja'Marr Chase over Penei Sewell won't go away any time soon. Those cries will be especially loud if Cincinnati's makeshift offensive line can't protect Joe Burrow this season. I believe Chase is a true difference-maker and was the correct selection. Adding Chase to this offense with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd creates one of the league's best 11 personnel units. Joe Mixon's season was cut short last year, and he's returning from a foot injury as a three-down single back with very little competition for touches behind him.
Jonah Williams, Riley Reiff and Jackson Carman have to step up. Joe Burrow was hit 7.7 times per game last season, the second-highest rate in the league. Coming off of a major knee reconstruction, Burrow is set to return to action in Week 1, and a clean pocket will be a sight for sore eyes. Prop wise, it's hard not to be bullish on this team's upside, assuming we get 17 games from Burrow. Cincy passed nearly 60% of the time on early downs in neutral situations with Burrow under center last year, the fourth-highest rate in the league during his starts. Burrow also showed signs of the elite accuracy that made him the top overall pick in the 2019 draft. His completion percentage above expectation ranked sixth in the league. If he plays a full slate of games this season, we're very bullish on the over for his passing yards prop.
Bengals Player Props
(Prop lines from our NFL Player Prop Tool)
Bengals Defensive Outlook
The Bengals have a better secondary than you think, led by free safety Jessie Bates who'd be a household name if he wasn't relegated to Cincinnati. William Jackson departed, but Chidobe Awuzie and Mike Hilton join Trae Waynes at cornerback, and all three will be playing their first snaps in those fresh Bengals jerseys come Week 1. Upfront, they'll need to improve on their 29th-ranked pass-rush grade from last season. Trey Hendrickson was added after a breakout season with the Saints, and D.J. Reader returns after missing most of 2020 due to injury. Best case scenario, this is a league-average unit good enough to propel the Bengals to a 7-9 win season.
Bengals Bottom Line
The bull case for Cincinnati is that they stay healthy, Burrow takes the next step and the defense over-performs expectations. They ran poorly in terms of turnover luck last year and were 1-5 in one-score games, so natural regression to the mean could go a long way in supporting their case. The problem is this division is so strong. Schedule-wise, the Bengals didn't catch many breaks either. Their 17th game is a home game against the 49ers in Week 14, and their final four games are at Denver, home to Baltimore and Kansas City before finishing on the road against the Browns. This is not a playoff team, but I'm willing to sprinkle a bit on over 6.5 wins if you can find plus money in the market.
| Win Total | Over 6.5 +105 (PointsBet) Under 6.5 -110 (BetMGM) |
|---|---|
| Playoffs Y/N | YES +500 (DraftKings) No -556 (Caesars) |
| Win AFC | +8000 (BetMGM) |
| Win Super Bowl | +15000 |
