NBA Player Prop Bets: Playoff P Prop Party
In the early 80s, Los Angeles Lakers coach Pat Riley noted that “the playoffs don’t really start until the home team loses a game.” Game Three of the Los Angeles Clippers-Phoenix Suns series could very well determine the future Western Conference Champion. Chris Paul is entering this contest as probable, while Kawhi Leonard has been declared out for his fifth straight game. Make sure to keep an eye on each team’s injury report leading up to game time as Chris Paul’s status could significantly impact projections. Also, remember to check out 4for4’s NBA Player Prop Tool before locking in your picks!
*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.
FanDuel Player Prop Bets (June 24, 2021)
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Deandre Ayton Over 15.5 Points (-110)
Only one player has averaged 10+ field goal attempts per game while converting over 70% over the playoffs—and that player is none other than Deandre Ayton. Shooting an astronomical 72.6% from the field—good for 16.3 points per game—over 12 playoff contests so far, Ayton has simply been unstoppable. Somehow he’s found a way to improve upon these impressive stats during the Western Conference Finals, bumping his scoring average to 22 points while raising his field goal percentage even higher to 75.9%.
In three regular-season games against the Clippers, Ayton averaged 15.7 points per game on 64.5% shooting from the field. He presents a difficult matchup for the Clippers as he’s too big for Nicolas Batum, who lately Tyronn Lue has preferred at the center position, but he’s also too quick and skilled for Ivica Zubac to handle in the post.
The potential return of Chris Paul should only help Ayton, who over the playoffs has attempted just under 80% of his field goals off no dribbles, with an additional 16% coming off one dribble. This statistic shows me that when Ayton touches the ball, he’s immediately in a position to score. It’s also clear the resistance on his touches is lacking as he’s shooting 72% on these attempts throughout the playoffs. In this series, Ayton has brought his shot attempts off 0-1 dribbles up to 96.6% of his attempts while converting on 78.6% of these field goals. The efficiency has been insane, his opportunity has continued to grow and it appears the Clippers have no answer to slow him down.
Risk: 1.1 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit.
Paul George Over 5.5 Assists (102)
Playoff P has been a common discount placed on Paul George over the past few seasons and on some accounts, it's warranted. George did miss the two free throws that led to the longest 15-seconds in NBA history, but he also has led this Clippers team without his superstar counterpart and done so while leading his team in several statistical categories. Heading into Game Three of the Western Conference Finals, PG13 is averaging 5.3 assists per game on 9.3 assist opportunities per game. This leads the Clippers roster and is an improvement from the team-leading 5.2 assists he averaged during the regular season. In this series, George's assist opportunities have risen to 12.0 per game which provides plenty of chances to hit the over.
The second part of my argument for this prop comes from the discovery of his teammates' shooting percentage when receiving a pass from George. Of the 11 teammates that Paul George has passed to this playoffs, seven of them are shooting 50% or better on their field goal attempts. It’s truly a testament to how efficient of a passer George is, but also an anomaly I’m okay following to the bank. Check out the charts below and just let the numbers do the work.
| Pass To | Passes | Frequency | FGA | FG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Jackson | 199 | 25.0% | 48 | 56.3% |
| Kawhi Leonard | 184 | 23.1% | 66 | 59.1% |
| Nicolas Batum | 88 | 11.1% | 20 | 45.0% |
| Marcus Morris Sr. | 80 | 10.1% | 39 | 43.6% |
| Rajon Rondo | 79 | 9.9% | 14 | 21.4% |
| Ivica Zubac | 48 | 6.0% | 16 | 50.0% |
| Terance Mann | 46 | 5.8% | 20 | 60.0% |
| Patrick Beverley | 43 | 5.4% | 14 | 57.1% |
| Luke Kennard | 19 | 2.4% | 8 | 50.0% |
| Serge Ibaka | 6 | 0.8% | 4 | 25.0% |
| DeMarcus Cousins | 3 | 0.4% | 2 | 50.0% |
Risk: 1 unit on FanDuel to win 1.02 units.
BetMGM Player Prop Bets (June 24, 2021)
Paul George Under 8.5 Rebounds (-120)
Heading into tonight’s contest, Paul George is also the leading rebounder for the Los Angeles Clippers, securing 8.7 rebounds per contest. So, considering the under on this prop may surprise some of you, but that’s the thing about the playoffs—each series offers completely different opportunities with players' roles molding into what’s most necessary for team success. In terms of rebounding for Paul George, he has experienced a significant hit in rebound chances this series, seeing his playoff average of 15 rebound chances per game drop to just nine chances in the Western Conference Finals.
This is partially due to Phoenix’s ability to keep their opponent off the glass, but also a part of Los Angeles’ identity thus far in the playoffs. No team has averaged fewer rebounds than the Clippers and no team has allowed fewer rebounds than the Clippers. Both these teams are shooting extremely well so far in this series and it’s leading to few rebounding opportunities. Phoenix has averaged 41 rebounds per game, while Los Angeles has secured 39 per contest.
Looking at George’s production, you’ll see that the nine chances he’s had for rebounds have only led to totals of four and six, respectively, through the first two games. This prop is asking for him to grab every opportunity he has in Game Three—and that feels heavy in the under's favor.
Risk: 1.2 units on BetMGM to win 1 unit.
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