NBA Player Prop Bets: LaMelo Ball Paces the Hornets

While today's play-in action is not exactly the playoffs, it is a lot better than some of the basketball we have been seeing lately. When looking at props in the play-in games/playoffs, you have to remember that rotations and usual assignments will change a lot more based on matchup. The best players are going to play even more, so a natural bump to their numbers is likely. The books try to anticipate that as best as possible but some of the early guesswork leaves value on the tables for bettors. Another way to help you find value is the 4for4 NBA Player Prop Tool. Check it out before locking in your bets. With that said, let’s find some value and make it a profitable play-in experience.

*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.

FanDuel Player Props (May 18, 2021)

LaMelo Ball Over 16.5 Points (-108)

Since returning from a broken right wrist, LaMelo Ball hasn’t been quite as good overall as he was pre-injury but he doesn’t need to be for this over to hit. Volume is the key here. With an assumed bump in workload in the playoffs, volume should not be an issue.

From the time Ball entered the starting lineup, he has averaged 31.2 minutes and 14.9 field goal attempts (FGA) per game. Even the most conservative projection should have Ball over 33 minutes in a one-and-done scenario. In the nine games where Ball has played more than 33 minutes, he is averaging 23.9 points on 18.6 FGA.

As of late, the Hornets have been playing P.J. Washington more at center. This is likely due to coach James Borrego’s unhappiness with the center options Charlotte has and the want to give Ball and Terry Rozier as much space as possible to find their own shot and set up others.

The matchup for Ball is in question because Malcolm Brogdon, who has been out all of May with a sore right hamstring, is a game-time decision. Brogdon is a very good defender but likely will not be close to 100% if he tries to suit up. So even a possible tougher matchup does not look as daunting for Ball and the Hornets.

Risk: 1.08 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit.

P.J. Washington Over 7.5 Rebounds (+108)

As mentioned above, Washington has been getting more looks in the middle for Charlotte. That has given him a boost in rebounding production that the market has not caught up with yet.

On the season, Washington is averaging 6.5 rebounds on 12.0 rebounding chances. That number dipped to 5.5 rebounds on 11.5 rebounding chances in 10 games from mid-April thru early May. In his last six games, with a larger minute load, Washington has brought down 9.3 rebounds per game on 15.0 rebounding chances.

Part of the success has been Washington’s better proximity to the basket for his rebounds. In the slump, his average rebound was 6.4 feet from the hoop. In the last six, that has gone down by a full foot to 5.4 feet. It doesn’t sound like a lot but with more time at center, his box-out responsibility is closer to the hoop, which puts him in more positions for rebounds.

The Pacers' rebounding woes have been remedied some since the return of Domantas Sabonis, however, they are still allowing 16.2 rebounds per game to centers in their last seven games. That number barely gets Indiana out of the top 10.

There is plenty of room between the number the Pacers have allowed and Washington to hit that number with splitting time at PF and center.

Risk: 1 unit on FanDuel to win 1.08 units.

DraftKings Player Props (May 18, 2021)

Evan Fournier Over 3.5 Assists (+121)

It has been tough to get much of a read on the Celtics since the trade deadline, especially with all the injuries they have had, but it seems like that has created some value we can take advantage of.

In the 10 games since Fournier has entered the starting lineup, he has averaged 3.6 assists per game in 31.6 minutes. Considering the nature of the play-in game and the underwhelming bench wings on the Celtics, that minutes per game number should go up.

Fournier has started four games with Kemba Walker, Marcus Smart and Jayson Tatum. In those contests, Fournier has averaged 5.8 assists per game. Part of the reason Fournier was brought in was to be another ball-handler when the primary options were being covered more tightly. When given his full complement of teammates that will be in this game, Fournier has been able to do that.

The Wizards are very light on wings and have been playing big with a starting frontcourt of Davis Bertans, Rui Hachimura and Alex Len. Whichever of Bertans or Hachimura end up on Fournier would be a plus matchup for him in terms of ability in space and quickness. Considering the juice, this is value too good to pass up.

Risk: 1 unit on DraftKings to win 1.21 units.

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