2021 Shriners Children's Open: Round 4 Matchups

As Matthew Wolff dropped in his eighth consecutive par putt and walked off the eighth green the frustration was visible. He was five shots off the lead with nine golfers in front of him on the leaderboard at that moment. He was losing ground and running out of time, and he knew it. So the streaky player that he is, Wolff went on a birdie-run. Over his last 10 holes, he shot six-under-par, including a near-albatross on the Par 5 16th hole where he ended up eagling a six-foot putt. Not to be outdone, Adam Schenk, who usually fades on the weekend, continued with his great play, finishing the round one stroke ahead of Wolff on the leaderboard at 18-under par. Behind those two are a host of players one-shot back at 16-under par including Sam Burns, Andrew Putnam and Chad Ramey. The talented Sungjae Im struggled on Saturday, but he still sits only three shots back at 15-under. It should set up for an entertaining Sunday in the Las Vegas desert. Wolff (+250) and Burns (+430) are the clear favorites to raise the trophy tomorrow. Outside of those two, and perhaps Im, there is not much value nor other contenders who should threaten during the final round. Check the article later for potential matchup bets when lines are released. For now, we have a couple of finishing bets to take advantage of based on the Strokes Gained data.

Round 4 Betting Selections

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*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.

Sam Burns To Win (+430)

While there isn't a ton of value here, over the past few months, Sam Burns has proven he is amongst the best golfers in the world. Most of the prognosticators did not think he could win back-to-back weeks after coming off a win at the Sanderson Farms last week. Burns has carried his hot play to the desert, though, and he's threatening again. While he hasn't dominated any of the Strokes Gained categories like he did last week, when he gained 14.4 shots with his ball-striking, he has been positive in every area and now has plenty of experience in dealing with the pressure of being in contention on Sundays. Tomorrow will be more of a challenge with talented players like Wolff and Im to contend with, but if Burns continues his steady play, I predict he will again be hoisting the trophy come Sunday evening.

Risk: 1 Unit on FanDuel.

Matthew NeSmith Top-10 Finish (+310)

After a rough stretch of seven missed cuts and zero finishes better than 35th place, Matthew NeSmith has finally put together three quality rounds of golf. His approach game is third in the field and he is the best "Sunday" player in this field over the past two years, gaining an average of almost 1.5 strokes on the field. Currently sitting in 10th place, he gained a combined 5.6 strokes with both his irons and putter on Saturday. I will look for him to carry that over into tomorrow's round where a top-10 finish should be well within reach.

Risk: 1 Unit on FanDuel.

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