Top Stacks on FanDuel and DraftKings for Week 6

Oct 14, 2020
Top Stacks on FanDuel and DraftKings for Week 6

Stacking players is a stairway to the top of daily fantasy tournaments, maximizing upside by creating the sort of volatility that can help your roster post a crooked score—one way or another.

Below are some of the most intriguing stacking plays I found while sifting through the week's matchups. Most of these options will leave room for high-ceiling studs. The goal, naturally, is to get a lot for a little. So let's get into it.

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Detroit Lions (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars, O/U 54.0

QB Matthew Stafford, Lions ($7,300 FD/$6,300 DK)

WR Kenny Golladay, Lions ($7,200 FD/$6,200 DK)

TE T.J. Hockenson, Lions ($5,700 FD/$5,300 DK)

I refuse to stop attacking the Jaguars defense in this space. They’re truly an abomination, and it doesn’t have much to do with injuries. We’ll continue to target Jacksonville’s defense as long as they prove incapable of stopping—let me check my notes—ah yes, every single position.

That Stafford might be on the chalky side in cash contests won’t put me off the Lions QB in tournaments, where I doubt he’ll be as chalky. He’s one of several players available priced reasonably in a game with the week’s fourth-highest over/under. Probably we’re not going to see Detroit have a 28.5-point implied total for the remainder of the season so we’ll call this a unique opportunity to cash in on a Lions onslaught. Four out of five QBs to face Jacksonville have posted at least 22.5 fantasy points; Joe Burrow is the lone quarterback to miss that threshold against the Jags, managing 20 points with 300 passing yards. Only five defenses allow more schedule-adjusted points to quarterbacks than the Jaguars, who give up the most yards per pass attempt (8.7) by a long shot.

Benefiting from a gaudy Stafford stat line would be his unquestioned No. 1 guy, Kenny Golladay, whose DFS price point has hardly fluctuated at all since Week 1. Since returning from a hamstring injury in Week 3, Golladay has 10.5 fantasy points over expectation, a good sign he’s performing at a high level in what has been a tragic Detroit offense. He’s reclaimed his mantle at the alpha wideout, commanding a 25% target share in his two games and finding the end zone in both contests. Against a Jags secondary giving up the eighth-most adjusted points to receivers—and the seventh-most wideout receptions—Golladay could make quick work out of Jacksonville corners in Week 6.

Second in Detroit’s target share since Golladay’s return? That would be the third member of our Lions stack, T.J. Hockenson. He’s drawn 17% of Stafford’s throws since Week 3 (and 15% overall since Week 1). Jacksonville linebackers have been abysmal in coverage over the season’s five weeks, with the team’s safeties not being much better. Tight ends aren’t be peppered with targets against the Jaguars, but as we saw with Darren Fells last week, this Jacksonville defense is giving up huge plays to tight ends. That puts Hockenson on the volatile side of things in Week 6, which is fine for our purposes. The Hock, before the Lions’ Week 5 bye, had run the 13th most pass routes among tight ends. He’s a fantastic touchdown candidate in Week 6.

I’d love to include a Jags pass catcher in this stack. The team’s target distribution is far too unconcentrated though, leaving us guessing about which guy might see a slight uptick in targets and cash in with a touchdown. If D.J. Chark is out for this game, there’s some logic in throwing Laviska Shenault into this Detroit stack. He ran a route on a very nice 69% of Gardner Minshew’s dropbacks last week against the Texans while posting a season-high snap share. A back-and-forth contest could inflate his targets against the Lions.

Cleveland Browns (-3.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers, O/U 51.0

QB Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers ($7,600 FD/$6,700 DK)

TE Eric Ebron, Steelers ($5,200 FD/$4,100 DK)

WR JuJu Smith-Schuster ($7,100 FD/$6,600 DK)

Cleveland’s defense is vulnerable. Maybe way more vulnerable than many fantasy footballers think. A mere three teams give up more schedule-adjusted fantasy points to enemy QBs; two teams allow more adjusted points to tight ends; and only the Seahawks and their barely-existent secondary give up more adjusted points to receivers. The Browns can be had.

The Browns have shut down precisely one quarterback in 2020. Philip Rivers in Week 5 scored just 12 fantasy points against Cleveland, managing 243 yards. The rest of the QBs to face Cleveland have torched the Browns to varying degrees, including Dak Prescott, who eclipsed 500 yards against them in Week 4. Roethlisberger through four games is seventh among QBs in fantasy points over expectation, despite the relatively conservative nature of this year’s Pittsburgh passing offense. The Steelers having an implied total of 27.75 points and 66.7% of touchdowns against Cleveland coming through the air this year means Roethlisberger is probably a good bet to once again wind up with multiple touchdown tosses in Week 6.

I chose Smith-Schuster and Ebron to play alongside Roethlisberger because the Browns struggle most against slot receivers and tight ends. The same defenders usually cover tight ends (especially those who run routes out of the slot) and slot wideouts, so this isn’t quite rocket science. Tavierre Thomas, the Browns’ main slot defender, has been targeted 22 times this season, leading to 19 receptions, 160 yards, and a touchdown. Only five slot corners have been targeted more in 2020. M.J. Stewart, who’s missed a lot of time this season, hasn’t been a whole lot better: five targets against Stewart have turned into four catches for 59 yards. JuJu leads the Steelers in slot targets with 16, playing nearly 80% of his snaps from the slot. Whatever JuJu is, he’s not the team’s WR1—or anything resembling a WR1. But DFS players will certainly be off JuJu this week—and on teammate Chase Claypool after his nuclear Week 5 outing—making Pittsburgh’s slot guy a tournament option with rock-bottom ownership.

Slowly becoming a part of the Steelers’ passing attack, Ebron—who has 10 receptions and a touchdown over the past two weeks—could roast the Browns defense this week. Tight ends have been targeted on 23.8% of passes against the Browns this season, the seventh-highest rate in the league.

Every team to face Cleveland has seen its tight ends put up solid stat lines: Ravens tight ends in Week 1 brought in seven catches, including two touchdowns; Bengals tight ends in Week 2 were targeted 15 times and combined for 87 yards; Week 3 saw Logan Thomas get seven targets; Dallas tight ends went for over 100 yards on 15 targets in Week 4; and the unheralded Trey Burton caught five of six targets for 33 yards last week against the Browns. Ebron’s increasing opportunity and production hasn’t translated to a jump in DFS price, as his FanDuel price has ticked up by just $200 and his DraftKings salary has dropped by $500 since the start of the season. And if you don't believe my babbling about Ebron's solid Week 6 matchup, take a look at the 4for4 floor and ceiling algorithm, which gives Ebron the sixth-highest tight end ceiling of the week.

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (-9.5); O/U 47.0

RB Myles Gaskin, Dolphins ($5,700 FD/$5,400 DK)

WR Jamison Crowder, Jets ($6,600 FD/$6,100 DK)

Look closely and this game isn’t as hideous as it might seem. A ringing endorsement, I know. We have one horrid defense and one so-so defense, with a good idea of how game script will unfold here. Stacking Gaskin and Crowder is more appealing on DraftKings for obvious reasons, namely that Crowder is a PPR monster who’s unlikely to splash in FanDuel’s 0.5 PPR format without a touchdown or two.

This is more of a secondary stack, or one that can be used in a lineup alongside a larger stack that might include a QB and his top pass catcher. Including multiple stacks in the same lineup can increase volatility, which is of course a central goal in creating tournament rosters.

Gaskin was cemented as the Dolphins’ lead back after Jordan Howard was unceremoniously deactivated before Sunday’s game against the Niners. I checked—there was no ceremony. Anyway, Gaskin went on to lead the team with 36% total opportunity (rushes plus targets). Maybe the most important note for Gaskin: he wasn’t pulled when Miami had a big fourth-quarter lead. He continued to see touches, perhaps offering some comfort this week to fantasy players fretting that a Dolphins blowout against New York will land Gaskin on the pine in the second half.

When we can get a clear-cut lead back—Gaskin has handled 64% of the team’s carries through five weeks and run 79 more routes than any other Dolphins back—against a defense allowing the fourth-most schedule-adjusted points to the position, we do it. A nice and hefty 47.1% of plays run against Gang Green’s defense this season have been rushes, the sixth-highest mark in the league. Gaskin is locked in for 20 touches with his team sporting an implied total of 27.75 points.

Crowder—and to a lesser extent, Jeff Smith—would be the central beneficiary of a big old serving of negative game script. Last week against Arizona he turned ten targets into 116 yards and a touchdown while the Jets kicked into frantic catch-up mode in the second half. There’s little reason to think Crowder won’t again see double-digit targets if the Dolphins indeed seize a sizable lead and New York is left to drop back again and again. Miami’s main slot cornerback, Nik Needham, has been fine if unspectacular in 2020: he’s allowed seven catches for 79 yards on ten targets through five games. Jamal Perry, the team’s other slot corner, has allowed five grabs on six targets this season. Crowder, of course, gets almost all his opportunity from the slot.

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