NFL Draft Props: Second Defensive Player Drafted

Apr 06, 2020
NFL Draft Props: Second Defensive Player Drafted

The DraftKings Sportsbook is offering more player prop bets for the 2020 NFL draft than any other sportsbook and offers a fun prop of which player will be the second defensive player drafted. There are three true options in Ohio State CB Jeffrey Okudah, Clemson LB/S Isaiah Simmons and Ohio State DE Chase Young. This analysis will discuss the best way to bet this prop.

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NFL Draft Props, Second Defensive Player Drafted

Player Odds
Jeffrey Okudah -150
Isaiah Simmons +175
Derrick Brown +1000
Chase Young +1600
Javon Kinlaw +1600
K'Lavon Chaisson +3300
C.J. Henderson +5000

Ohio State DE Chase Young (+1600)

This year the consensus is that Chase Young is the draft's best non-quarterback. He currently sits at -375 to go within the first two picks and is +1600 to go as the second overall defender. It is tough to find a mock draft where he isn't the selection at number two overall by the Washington Redskins.

The only scenario where he isn’t the draft's first defensive player selected is one where the Redskins trade out to the highest bidder for a team to draft Tua Tagovailoa and the Lions, never expecting Young to be available, take another defensive player they had already locked in on. Tua is currently +250 to go second overall, so it's not impossible for the Redskins to trade out—the far less likely outcome is the Lions passing on Young with the third pick for someone such as Jeffrey Okudah. That exact scenario of Burrow, Tua, Okudah going 1-2-3 pays out at +1100. While Young going as the second defender pays out as better odds than that exact order mentioned, it is the long-shot bet for a reason as it is very unlikely to happen and is a pass for me.

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Jeffrey Okudah CB Ohio State (-150)

Okudah is the favorite as he has been locked and loaded in mocks as the Lions' pick at third overall. The best corner in the class sits on the board for a team in the Lions who just traded away their best corner in Darius Slay. The exact order of Burrow-Young-Okudah is +275 and the current betting favorite and provides more value than the -150 line of Okudah going as the second defender off the board.

The challenging part here is figuring whether the Lions trade out to either the Dolphins of Chargers who are looking to come up on a quarterback. With the betting line of Burrow-Young-Tua going 1-2-3 at +300 the odds show that it is nearly as likely they trade out, as they stay put, and trading down to Miami would likely allow them to land their guy at five, while adding more draft capital. I believe the Lions will trade out and think -150 is a bad betting line for Okudah to be the second defender taken. If I had my heart set on betting him to the Lions the exact order of Burrow, Young, Okudah at +275 provides far more value and would be the approach I would take.

Isaiah Simmons (+175)

While Okudah’s betting line is set at 4.5 and Simmons is set at 6.5, Simmons at +175 is the better bet to be the second defender off the board in the 2020 NFL Draft. He is a once in a generation type talent and one team specifically is said to be salivating over him, the New York Giants. Just a week ago, the Giants were +400 to draft Simmons and have dropped to +165 with all the buzz on how fond they are of the talented linebacker from Clemson.

The last two drafts, the Giants pick has been the worst kept secret in sports and it appears to be that way again this year. Gettleman doesn’t trade down in the first and will stay put and take his guy after the Lions trade down to a team drafting a quarterback. Simmons being the second defender pays better than the current line of going to the Giants and leaves open the possibility of the Lions staying put and taking him. I am interested in this line as long as it stays higher odds than the Giants drafting him, if it drops below I would lose interest in betting it as the value would be gone.

Pick Summary

Prop Pick Odds Suggested Units Limit (Bet Down To)
Second Defensive Player Drafted Isaiah Simmons +175 0.5 As long as better odds than Simmons to Giants Bet Now!

Note: All advice in this article is based on odds available on the date of publishing.

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