5 Tight End Studs & Duds for 2020

Jun 23, 2020
5 Tight End Studs & Duds for 2020

In the final installment of this four-part series, I will discuss tight ends that outperformed their volume in 2019 and those that failed to turn ample opportunity into winning fantasy production. The basis for this analysis is touchdown expectation. For each position, I evaluated touchdown rates from various points on the field and calculated expected scoring for every player in the league. A full rundown of the methodology can be found in the introduction to this article.

More Studs & Duds: QB | RB | WR

The following table outlines scoring rates for tight end targets from each line of scrimmage:

TE TD Rates Based on Field Position, 2017–2019
Line Of Scrimmage TD Rate
1–49 0.4%
50–41 0.9%
40–31 1.8%
30–21 7.8%
20–16 12.2%
15–11 22.1%
10–6 29.5%
5–1 49.2%

After calculating each tight end’s touchdown expectation (minimum 30 targets) and comparing that number to the actual touchdowns that they generated, we can get an idea of which tight ends scored more or less often than they should have and, in turn, potential studs or duds in 2020.

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