Week 6 Picks for NFL Survivor Contests

Oct 09, 2019
Week 6 Picks for NFL Survivor Contests

This article was written by TeamRankings

Another week, another popular team down in survivor pools. This time it was the Chiefs, where a loss to the Colts at home eliminated about 23% of entries a week ago.

Our NFL Survivor Picks subscriber recommendations largely avoided Kansas City (0.4% of our recommendations) and were heavier on the Patriots and the Eagles than the public was. Overall, the public survived at a 68.6% rate, with nearly three-quarters of the eliminations coming from Kansas City's loss. Meanwhile, our recommendations came in at a much higher 84.6% survival rate, with some recommendations on the Bears comprising the majority of eliminations.

Overall, our subscriber picks recommendations have made it to Week 6 at about a 35% rate, compared to an estimated 26% for the public. (If you're new to TeamRankings, you can get a free three-day premium trial to check out our survivor picks product.)

Now let's get to the NFL Week 6 survivor pick analysis.

Week 6 NFL Survivor Pick Analysis

Our free analysis of weekly NFL survivor picks focuses on three factors that you always need to consider in order to maximize your edge in survivor pools: win odds (how likely a team is to survive), pick popularity (what percentage of your pool you'd expect to pick a team) and future value (how valuable it is to save a team for use in a future week).

Just remember that varying rules and tiebreakers in survivor pools can have a big impact on your optimal picking strategy. For purposes of this article, we assume a 100-entry "standard rules" pool (one loss and you're out, you can only pick each team once) with no other rule tweaks like allowing strikes or buy-backs, forcing double picks late in the season, etc.

Data referenced below was current as of Wednesday morning, and could change between posting time and kickoff time. Our product updates multiple times per day with the latest information.

Win Odds: Top Five Week 6 Picks

When it comes to win odds, higher is obviously better. All else being equal, you want to pick the team with the best likelihood of surviving.

Here are the five safest teams for NFL Week 6, according to the betting markets, as measured by their money line odds, which we translate into win odds (in parentheses):

  1. New England Patriots (90%, 17-point favorite) vs. New York Giants
  2. Baltimore Ravens (83%, 12-point favorite) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
  3. Dallas Cowboys (76%, 7.5-point favorite) at New York Jets
  4. Los Angeles Chargers (72%, 7-point favorite) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
  5. Kansas City Chiefs (69%, 5-point favorite) vs. Houston Texans

Win Odds Analysis

Another week, another spot where the Patriots have the top win odds, this time catching the depleted Giants offense on a short week. The Ravens are the second safest choice, getting a winless Cincinnati team at home. Dallas goes to the Jets, where Sam Darnold is expected to play. The Chargers’ odds could see some slight movement depending on the quarterback news out of Pittsburgh, as Mason Rudolph is in the concussion protocol. Kansas City will look to rebound at home against Houston after their upset loss to the Colts.

Pick Popularity

If you ignore win odds and future value, it's almost always better to pick a less popular team in a survivor pool. Diversifying your picks from the crowd sets up a scenario where your expected pool winnings can increase significantly if your pick wins and another popular pick loses.

Here are the five most popular survivor picks of Week 6 2019:

  1. Baltimore Ravens (34%) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
  2. New England Patriots (23%) vs. New York Giants
  3. Dallas Cowboys (13%) at New York Jets
  4. Green Bay Packers (9%) vs. Detroit Lions
  5. Kansas City Chiefs (4%) vs. Houston Texans
  6. Seattle Seahawks (4%) at Cleveland Browns

Pick Popularity Analysis

Pick popularity this week is being heavily influenced by prior week usage. The Ravens are the most popular team because this has always been an attractive spot to use them. The Patriots are popular, but would be more so if they weren’t always one of the top options.

Meanwhile, Green Bay isn't one of the five safest teams this week (they just missed the list), but shoots up in popularity because they haven’t been used by most survivor entries yet. Seattle also makes an appearance, even though they are only favored by 1.5 points on the road at Cleveland—but a small percentage of the public seems willing to take that risk.

Future Value

The final element to consider when making a Week 6 survivor pick is future value. If you burn a great team this week, you don’t have that team for the future, and even smaller survivor pools have a realistic chance of lasting deep into the season.

(Of course, the teams with high future value also tend to be the better teams, at least until later in the season, when even great teams may not have many juicy matchups left.)

According to our numbers, here are the top five ranked teams in future value entering this week for a 100-entry standard rules pool:

  1. New England Patriots (3.3)
  2. San Francisco 49ers (2.6)
  3. Philadelphia Eagles (2.3)
  4. Kansas City Chiefs (1.6)
  5. Minnesota Vikings (1.1)

(Note: The numbers in parentheses are a proprietary rating of future value that we created, which is also impacted by factors such as pool size.)

Future Value Analysis

New England continues to lead the way in terms of future value. Kansas City, though, drops out of the second spot this week, after their loss to the Colts dropped their predictive rating. San Francisco is not a great survivor option this week on the road against the L.A. Rams, but their impressive performance on Monday Night to get to 4-0 has increased their future outlook as a survivor option.

Minnesota brings up the fifth spot just ahead of several other teams; the Vikings get Washington at home in Week 8. One final note: this only includes teams playing this week, which is why Buffalo slides off for this week, as they are on a bye.

Get Our Week 6 Survivor Pick Recommendation

It's easy to just make a broad claim that "Team X is the best survivor pick of Week 6." In reality, it's nowhere near that simple, because the best pick for your survivor pool depends on factors such as its size and rule and which teams you've already picked.

We built our NFL Survivor Picks product to do all of the number-crunching required to give you the best chance to win your survivor pool. You answer a few questions about your pool, and it provides customized pick recommendations using the latest matchup data, betting market odds and public picking trends from national survivor pool sites. It even generates an optimal survivor pick "portfolio" for you, if you're playing multiple entries in one or more pools.

Since 2017, subscribers to the product have reported nearly $1.5 million in survivor pool winnings. We invite you to check it out free for NFL Week 6 with our free trial offer.

More From TeamRankings: NFL Survivor Picks | Football Pick’em Picks | Betting Picks

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