DFS Projected Ownership Analysis: Week 5

Oct 03, 2019

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Leveraging ownership percentages is a crucial aspect of creating tournament lineups. In this article, I use the 4for4 metric GPP Leverage Scores to highlight players whose projected ownership is either too high or too low. You can get a complete explanation on how the metric works here, but in short, the leverage score takes projected ownership and compares it to an implied ownership. The projected ownership is the prediction of what percentage of lineups a particular player will be owned in. A player’s implied ownership is 4for4’s recommended ownership based on salary, point projection, and positional scarcity, among other factors. Comparing the two ownership percentages can highlight players who 4for4 projections are higher or lower on relative to the field. Note that every position may not be included in each section.

Players to Be Overweight On

QB Jameis Winston ($7,600 FD/$6,200 DK) @ Saints

With an over/under at 47 and a spread of just 3.5, this game could be one of the bigger shootouts of the week. Both defenses funnel points to the passing game and Winston’s upside comes from his deep balls—only four quarterbacks have thrown 15-plus yards downfield at a higher rate this season. Priced near quarterbacks like Carson Wentz and Tom Brady on both sites, Winston should draw moderate ownership despite his big game last week. Although 4for4’s current ownership projections have Jameis with a ceiling of 5% and just a slightly positive leverage score, rostering the Buccaneers quarterback in more than 10% of your lineups is viable given the great matchups for his two primary targets, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. The Saints bleed points to players in the slot and Evans will line up against Marshon Lattimore, who has allowed the fifth-most yards per target this year.