FantasyDraft Week 4 Value Plays

Sep 26, 2019
FantasyDraft Week 4 Value Plays

Each week, l offer my favorite plays for the Sunday slate on FantasyDraft. 4for4’s Lineup Generator allows users to quickly pinpoint the top values at each position and I will expand on how each player is best deployed, whether it’s by game type, as part of a stack, or simply a core value across all formats. Note that FantasyDraft is a full-PPR site with yardage bonuses but the roster requires only two wide receivers and implements two flex positions.


Russell Wilson ($11,400) @ Cardinals

In three games this season, quarterbacks have posted 31.6, 30.9, and 25.3 FantasyDraft points against the Cardinals. When adjusted for strength of schedule, Arizona ranks 31st against the position. While Seattle has been relatively run-heavy in neutral game script, Wilson has at least 35 pass attempts in consecutive games and is averaging the fourth-most fantasy points per attempt in the league. With the Cardinals’ uptempo pace, Wilson should throw quite a bit again this week and his legs give him some extra cushion—he’s averaging just under 30 rushing yards per game so far this season.

Matt Ryan ($10,600) vs. Titans

Ryan projects as 4for4’s QB8 but he is priced as the QB18 on FantayDraft this week. Only three teams have thrown at a higher rate in neutral situations than the Falcons, helping Ryan hit 300 yards and multiple scores in every game this season. Tennessee isn’t a particularly favorable matchup overall but Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley will both get time against Adoree' Jackson, who has been one of the most generous cornerbacks in the league so far this season, in terms of fantasy points per target allowed. Atlanta has a favorable implied total of 25 and they are favored by four—all of their touchdowns have come through the air this season.

Running Back

Austin Ekeler ($15,100) @ Dolphins

Positive game script leads to big days for running backs and no team serves up favorable end-of-game situations like the Dolphins. The Chargers are favored by 15 and Ekeler has been a workhorse in Melvin Gordon’s absence, as one of 10 backs with at least 40% of his team’s total touches. Ekeler’s target share ranks seventh among all backs and he’s one of two backs with at least six targets in every game this season, which is huge for FantasyDraft's full-PPR scoring format.

Marlon Mack ($11,400) vs. Raiders

Few teams have been as committed to the run as the Colts this season, resulting in a league-leading 61 rushes through three games for Mack. Indianapolis is a touchdown favorite at home against an Oakland defense that just surrendered over 200 rushing yards to the Vikings in the midst of positive game script for Minnesota. Mack should easily clear 20 touches in this game and flirt with top-five fantasy numbers if he can score but he’s priced as the RB14.

Wide Receiver

Keenan Allen ($15,700) @ Dolphins

Allen is averaging a whopping 14 targets per game. He and Ekeler have formed one of the most concentrating passing attacks in the league, combining for over 55% of the Chargers’ targets. Even as the most expensive receiver on the slate, Allen’s volume makes him the top value at his position. Miami is a juicy matchup for any player at this point but it’s especially enticing for Allen—only three teams have allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers lined up in the slot, where Allen has seen over two-thirds of his targets.

Terry McLaurin ($8,800) @ Giants

New York has been arguably the worst secondary in the league so far this year and McLaurin is approaching No. 1 WR status with at least five catches, 60 yards, and a score in all three games. Despite his steady volume, the Redskins' new number one wideout is priced as the WR46 this week. He is one of three wide receivers priced below $10,000 averaging at least eight targets per game, and the only one under $9,000. Keep an eye on McLaurin’s health, as he was limited in Thursday’s practice.

Tight End

Evan Engram ($12,300) vs. Redskins

Daniel Jones’s presence did nothing to hurt Engram’s outlook and probably raised his ceiling. The Giants tight end is now one of 10 players with at least eight targets in every game this year and he’s accounting for nearly a quarter of the team's targets—with Saquon Barkley out this week, that target share could climb. Washington doesn’t rank as poorly against tight ends as they do against receivers—they are last in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position—but Engram is essentially a big slot receiver.

Greg Olsen ($8,200) @ Texans

Like Engram, Olsen didn’t see a drop off in production with the backup quarterback, seeing 25% of Kyle Allen’s targets in Week 3. No matchup is as great as Arizona, but Olsen is a great value as the only player besides McLaurin priced under $9,000 and averaging at least eight targets. Even with Olsen’s resurrection, he is still priced behind seven tight ends on the main slate.

Defense and Special Teams

Chargers ($7,100) @ Dolphins

As long as the Dolphins are multiple-touchdown underdogs, their opponent is going to be the best value at defense—you simply can’t find a better floor. Miami has allowed the fifth-highest adjusted sack rate this year and they rank last in schedule-adjusted points allowed to opposing defenses. The Chargers are favored by 15.

Broncos ($5,400) vs. Jaguars

Punting is never a bad idea at defense and Denver is one of the cheapest favorites this week, and they are at home. The Broncos have yet to record a sack this season but the Jaguars rank in the middle of the pack in neutral passing rate so there should be opportunities. At the very least, this play opens up salary to go up a tier at one, if not two, skill positions. Sometimes that alone is enough to take the floor play at defense.

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