Thursday Night DFS Single-Game Breakdown: Buccaneers at Panthers

Sep 12, 2019
Thursday Night DFS Single-Game Breakdown: Buccaneers at Panthers

Week 1 is in the books and we kick off Week 2 with a showdown between two teams who came into the 2019 season with high expectations. Those hopes were brought down to earth with disappointing performances with Jameis Winston and the Bucs getting handled by the 49ers and the Panthers getting handled by the Rams despite another great performance from Christian McCaffrey.

Let's break down the game and how we can find the edge that might get us at the top of the leaderboards.

Injuries

Olsen said he expects to play, so there are no injury concerns of note for this game.

Evaluation of Vegas Spread and Total

Carolina -7 Over/Under 49.5

Vegas expects the Panthers to win comfortably against the Bucs in what should be a relatively high-scoring game. Let's look at the likely game flow given this spread and total and assign some probabilities to each potential outcome.

  • Close, low-scoring game (<40 points) - 5%
  • Close, average-scoring game (40-49 points) - 20%
  • Close, high-scoring game (50+ points) - 20%
  • Blowout for the home team, low-scoring game - 5%
  • Blowout for the home team, average-scoring game - 25%
  • Blowout for the home team, high-scoring game - 25%
  • Blowout for the away team, low-scoring game - 0%
  • Blowout for the away team, average-scoring game - 0%
  • Blowout for the away team, high-scoring game - 0%

What Players Benefit Most From Potential Gameflow

Close, average-scoring game (40-49 points)

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