6 Post Free Agency Best-Ball ADP Risers & Fallers

Apr 01, 2019

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The official 2019 NFL season started on March 13 and over the last couple of weeks trades and free agency moves have shifted the landscape of fantasy football. Naturally, these moves impact ADP. Comparing FFPC best-ball ADP from two weeks before free agency to ADP the two weeks since, the following will examine some of the more notable shifts in early-season draft position and how owners should react to those shifts.

RB Mark Ingram to the Ravens

There are certainly bigger names than Mark Ingram to switch teams this offseason, but none have altered ADP more than this move. Leaving a relatively balanced Saints offense where he played second fiddle to Alvin Kamara, Ingram is expected to be the starter in one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league in Baltimore. That change in scenery has caused Ingram’s ADP to jump 16 spots, now going as the 22nd running back off the board in the middle of the fourth round in 12-team leagues. In Greg Roman’s run-first offense with Ingram’s ability in the passing game, the new Ravens back could easily approach top-12 numbers, at least from a volume perspective, giving him plenty of room to outperform his price, despite the recent spike in his stock.

On the flip side, the Ingram signing plummeted the value of the other Baltimore backs, Gus Edwards and Kenneth Dixon. Prior to free agency, Edwards was being drafted for depth as the 44th back off the board. Since March 13, Edwards and Dixon have both seen their ADP drop roughly 70 spots, with both going outside the top-200. Because Baltimore is so run-heavy, Edwards makes sense as a late-round flier to hedge against an Ingram injury, but shares should be minimal.

RB Latavius Murray to the Saints

Ingram’s departure from New Orleans left one more domino to fall, which was to fill his role in the Saints backfield. Insert Latavius Murray. With Ingram gone, Murray inherits a role that led to just over 13 touches per game last year in an offense that had the fourth-most drives that made it to the red zone in 2018—near the goal line is where Murray shines. Since entering the league in 2014, Murray’s 25 rushing touchdowns from inside the 10-yard line rank fifth among all active backs.

The potential offered from the Saints offense has seen Murray’s price jump from the 212th pick before free agency to the 120th pick since March 13. That still only makes Murray the 39th running back off the board and he can easily flirt with RB2 numbers. If anything were to happen to Kamara, Murray could be a league-winner.

WR Odell Beckham to the Browns

When the biggest names in football change teams, they are the most fun to talk about, but they rarely see huge shifts in draft price since they are usually already being drafted quite high. Prior to being traded to Cleveland, Beckham was being taken 22nd overall as the seventh receiver off the board. Now paired with one of the most promising young quarterbacks in football, Baker Mayfield, Beckham has seen a relatively big jump for an early-round pick, going as the third receiver off the board, roughly at the 1-2 turn.

There’s plenty of evidence to suggest that Beckham should continue to see the dominant target share in Cleveland that he saw in New York and the upgrade in quarterback cannot be understated. While it’s tough for a player going in the top 12-13 picks to vastly outperform their cost, an argument can certainly be made for Odell to be a top-five pick and the overall WR1.