Streaming Quarterbacks: Week 9 Targets

Oct 30, 2018

Looking back at quarterback scoring from Weeks 1-4, we were spoiled, weren’t we? It seemed like every week we could find a quarterback on the waiver wire that could put up at least 20 fantasy points. The number of options was plentiful, matchups were easy to evaluate, and the results were even better. The process and the results were in alignment! Now? We’re happy to see any quarterback top 30 fantasy points, not just the streaming options. As overall quarterback scoring has waned, our expectations should match how the league is trending.

Let’s review last week’s recommendations. Our top recommendation was Eli Manning, who finished Week 8 with 12.6 fantasy points. That’s exactly 1.2 points fewer than Tom Brady. The combined picks averaged 16.1 points for a QB17 finish on the week. Week 9 offers some more positive game environments for our streaming picks, but let’s looks at some of the news and notes before we dig into the games.

We'll be evaluating all of the matchups using 4for4's Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) which is updated each week. Injuries and situations have altered our views on many of the defenses originally thought of as positive matchups to target. Injuries are discussed in the section below, but as always, the other guidelines include:

Only quarterbacks with no more than a 40 percent ownership in Yahoo leagues considered.
Ancillary metrics and game conditions (e.g. defensive ranking, weather) will be factored into the analysis.
Positive matchups for all pass catchers will be considered.
4for4 rankings should always be consulted for league-specific decisions.

Key Defensive Injuries

Carl Lawson, Bengals (Knee) – The defensive end suffered what turned out to be an ACL tear which will end his season. Cincinnati enters their bye with an 18.7 aFPA making them a defense to target. They start the second half of their season against the Saints at home in Week 10.

Jalen Mills, Eagles (Foot) – Mills got carted off the field in the second half with an undisclosed foot injury. The oft-targeted cornerback does leave a small void in Philadelphia’s defense, but it’s still a defense GMs would like to avoid. They are only allowing 16.8 schedule-adjusted points to quarterbacks and are now on their bye. They’ll open Week 10 against Dallas.

M.J. Stewart, Buccaneers (Leg) – The Buccaneers do not need more injuries on their defense, and yet, here we are. The slot corner was already having issues dealing with Bengals’ slot man Tyler Boyd and wound up injured to boot. Tampa Bay is the best matchup for a quarterback with 24.6 aFPA. Quarterback controversy aside, they have to deal with Cam Newton in Week 9. This might not end well.

Top Streaming Picks

Ryan Fitzpatrick at Panthers

So, here we are again. The Tampa Bay quarterback carousel is in full effect and the fantasy world is treated to Fitzmagic Part II. Despite the Buccaneers seemingly coaching out of fear, fantasy GMs can take advantage of the poor process. Mike Evans’ knee injury is critical to this recommendation, but we’ve all seen the ceiling at which Fitzpatrick can perform. He’s above average in deep-ball pass completions and has above average efficiency on over 50 percent of those same throws. Tampa Bay has two receivers in the top 15 of air yards for the entire league and eight players with double-digit targets. Quarterback streaming typically focuses on providing a floor for your roster. But, we know what the floor is for Fitzpatrick (3.0 points in Week 4). This is a ceiling play as Tampa Bay is on the road with a 23.8 implied team total. Carolina’s defense has been improving and enters Week 9 with 17.5 aFPA to quarterbacks. They flustered Joe Flacco, but Tampa has arguably better receivers. Let’s see if Fitzpatrick can capture the magic again as our top streamer for Week 9.

Fitzpatrick is available in 93 percent of Yahoo leagues.