DFS Projected Ownership Analysis: Week 12

Nov 23, 2018

The Week 12 NFL DFS Projected Ownership Analysis article highlights discrepancies between 4for4 player projections and projected ownership.

Leveraging ownership percentages is a crucial aspect of creating tournament lineups. In this article, I will be using the 4for4 metric GPP Leverage Scores to highlight players whose projected ownership is either too high or too low. You can get a complete explanation on how the metric works here, but in short, the leverage score takes projected ownership and compares it to an implied ownership. The projected ownership is the prediction of what percentage of lineups a particular player will be owned in. A player’s implied ownership is 4for4’s recommended ownership based on salary, point projection, positional scarcity, among other factors. Comparing the two ownership percentages can highlight players who 4for4 projections are higher or lower on relative to the field.

Players to Be Overweight On

QB Baker Mayfield ($7,500 FD/$5,500 DK)

Baker Mayfield faces the 22nd-ranked Bengals, in terms of schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to quarterbacks, with an implied total of 22.5 fantasy points. While the matchup looks decent on paper, Cincinnati has been one of the worst pass defenses in the league the last four weeks. Meanwhile, Mayfield has played well, not dipping below 14 fantasy points since his first start of the season. Mayfield has thrown multiple touchdown passes in his last four games. Offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens is showing trust in his young quarterback in the red zone, allowing him to throw the ball into the box. Aiding Mayfield is pass-catching back Duke Johnson. Mayfield has been checking down to Johnson when nothing is available, which limits turnovers and keeps the chains moving.