Streaming Kickers: Week 17 Fantasy Football Targets

Dec 26, 2017

If your league fights on into Week 17, you’ll need all the points you can get to take home that elusive trophy. While some may scoff at researching the kicker position, we’ve found that projecting a kicker’s output isn’t as difficult or random as you may think—in fact, taking a look at Vegas odds is the best way to accurately predict a kicker’s weekly potential. By focusing in on the team implied point totals, game totals, and favorites, we can get a cumulative idea of how an offense will perform when it comes to settling for field goals, distance of kicks, and the like.

Another metric useful in projecting a kicker’s output is 4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed or aFPA. By removing the schedule bias, we can compare matchups in an apples-to-apples manner. By Week 4, there’s a solid sample size to work from, and the info gets more trustworthy with each data-filled week.

The goal in streaming is to roster a player who will return starting kicker fantasy points, and Week 16 proved to be a productive one for my streamers. Dan Bailey had the second-highest fantasy points with 16, followed by Kai Forbath’s 10 as kicker 10. Dustin Hopkins checked in as kicker 14 with nine points. 4for4’s optimal streaming kicker has 221 total points on the season, enough for first place among all kickers in the league. Let’s move forward to Week 17 and attack that fake football championship!

In order to provide advice that you can actually implement, candidates for streaming must be available in at least 40% of Yahoo fantasy leagues.

Kai Forbath (MIN) vs. CHI

The second-seeded Vikings can clinch a first-round bye in the playoffs with a win or a tie in Week 17. They get a home contest against Chicago, a team with very little to play for, besides perhaps the coaches’ jobs. Minnesota’s implied team total is 25.75, projecting a solid amount of work for Forbath on Sunday. At a 46% Yahoo ownership, he’s the best steamer on the slate.

Graham Gano (CAR) @ ATL

Both teams in this contest are currently playoff bound, with the Falcons needing a win, or for Seattle to lose their matchup. Vegas has the over/under at a hefty 46.5 for this NFC South showdown with a team implied total of 21.5 for the Panthers. Gano is averaging 8 fantasy points a week and is owned in 36% of Yahoo leagues heading into Week 17.