Tournament Ownership Outlook - Week 3

Sep 25, 2015
Tournament Ownership Outlook - Week 3

The winner of Week 2's Sunday Million had six players under seven percent owned.

Pinpointing players who return great value but are low-owned is key to taking down tournaments. Every week, I'll be throwing away money entering a bunch of cheap Thursday GPPs on FanDuel with as many relevant players as I can, because FanDuel allows users to see ownership percentages of any player they roster.

To get an idea of the ownership percentages on other sites, we'll have to extrapolate the FanDuel results (and also account for pivots from the Thursday plays). Use common sense: if players have a large discrepancy between their FanDuel price and whatever site you're playing on, obviously you have to take that into account. Remember that FanDuel is 0.5 PPR, so pass-catching running backs may be more popular on full-PPR sites. Also note that these lineups are from Thursday nights, so if injury news has broken since, it can change things up, especially for other players in the same salary range as the players affected by injuries. Finally, keep in mind that when Thursday plays are taken out of the equation, the rest of the players may not necessarily simply see proportional increases in ownership -- it's very possible that one player will see a disproportionate increase compared to the rest of the pool.

Predicting ownership is more art than science, and this is by no means a perfect system. However, by looking at a ranked list of ownership percentages on a popular site like FanDuel, we can get a decent picture of how the consensus feels about all of the different plays in a given week across the industry.

I left the Thursday players in the list for reference purposes, and I'll write a few thoughts about what I think may change on Sunday, but generally, I will not be providing actual picks here. For those, check out my FanDuel GPP Breakdown and DraftKings GPP Breakdown, which both heavily take the information gleaned here into account.

Note: This week's contest was FanDuel's $1 Mini Dive.

Editor's Note: 4for4 has an ALL-NEW DFS SUBSCRIPTION! It includes our revolutionary Lineup Generator, Stack Value Reports, Ceiling & Floor Projections, GPP-Specific Articles, Ownership Outlooks, DFS Theory Articles, Lineup Construction Articles, a Downloadable .csv with Projections and Salary Data, and much more! DETAILS HERE! Previous subscribers don't worry, you'll get the same DFS content you got last season, but we think you'll want to UPGRADE to our DFS subscription because it takes our DFS content to the next level!


QB % Owned
Tom Brady 24.2
Eli Manning (Thu) 9.8
Carson Palmer* 6.9
Cam Newton 6.8
Ben Roethlisberger 6.0
Russell Wilson 5.3
Aaron Rodgers 5.0
Kirk Cousins (Thu) 4.2
Andy Dalton 3.1
Nick Foles 3.0
Marcus Mariota 2.7
Peyton Manning 2.3
Ryan Fitzpatrick 2.2
Andrew Luck 2.1
Matt Ryan 1.5
Blake Bortles 1.0
Alex Smith 0.9
Ryan Mallett 0.7
Jameis Winston 0.7
Brandon Weeden 0.7
Jimmy Clausen 0.2
Total 89.3

It looks like Tom Brady will be in twice as many lineups as any other QB this week.

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