Week 13 at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Colts offense has an implied team total of just 15.75 points. Only the Browns are lower in Week 13. As for the matchup? Woof. The Jaguars have allowed the fewest yards and touchdowns (2) to wide receivers this season. T.Y. Hilton belongs on your bench this week, as his only useful games this season have come against the Texans, 49ers, and Browns.
Week 12 vs. Tennessee Titans
The Titans are just 28th in aFPA vs. WRs this season, and reports out of Indianapolis are that quarterback Jacoby Brissett (concussion) should play this week. However, Hilton has been inconsistent weekly this season, with more than 70% of his PPR points coming in just three of the Colts' 10 games. He's once again a boom-or-bust WR this week, which lands him as a projected WR2 with another low floor in Week 12.
Week 10 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The good T.Y. Hilton resurfaced last week in a game against a struggling secondary with a quarterback situation even worse than what the Colts are dealing with. That led to more opportunities for Hilton, but this week against the Steelers, he's back to being a low-end WR2 option. The Steelers are top-10 in aFPA vs. WRs, and Hilton could not reach 60 yards against the Steelers without Andrew Luck last year.
Week 9 at Houston Texans
The Colts have the sixth-lowest implied team total in Vegas this week, playing in Houston versus a Texans defense that has allowed just 1 touchdown to receivers who don't have quarterbacks named Tom Brady and Russell Wilson. T.Y. Hilton has been bad with his back-up quarterback, but Houston is 28th in our aFPA vs. WR rankings. Therefore, Hilton is a boom-or-bust low-end WR2 in Week 9.
Week 8 at Cincinnati Bengals
Regardless of whether T.Y. Hilton was right or wrong (morally or schematically) about calling out his offensive line after last week's shutout, what matters is the Colts offense is a mess without Andrew Luck. Given his target share, Hilton is still properly ranked as a low-end WR2, but with a weekly floor much lower than that. The risk is there. Is Andrew Luck back yet? Sigh.
Week 7 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
T.Y. Hilton just isn't the bankable fantasy asset he was with Andrew Luck at QB. In what should have been a prime spot last week, he only caught 1 pass for 19 yards against the Titans. Now, he faces a Jaguars defense that is fourth in PPR points allowed to fantasy WRs. Jacksonville is also first in our aFPA vs. WR rankings. It's a brutal spot. Downgrade Hilton to a risky WR2 this week.
Week 6 at Tennessee Titans
Jacoby Brissett's rapid development has put T.Y. Hilton back on the fantasy map while Andrew Luck is out, evidenced by last week's breakout game of the season. The Titans are the second-easiest matchup in our aFPA vs. PPR WR rankings, too. Hilton has also put up a 5.0-92-0.5 line in his last four games against the Titans. Consider Hilton a low-end WR1 this week.
Week 5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Rough matchup last week for T.Y. Hilton, on top of just not being the same fantasy receiver without Andrew Luck. He has a chance to do some damage this week against a 49ers secondary that's ranked 18th in our aFPA vs. PPR WR rankings. The 49ers have also allowed the sixth-most PPR points to fantasy WRs this season. Hilton shapes up as a high-end WR2 this week.
Week 4 at Seattle Seahawks
T.Y. Hilton flashed his usual self last week against the Browns. But this week at Seattle? Hard pass. This feels like a "you'll need garbage time points" scenario, with the Colts a 14-point underdog. Consider Hilton a FLEX option for Week 4, given the matchup, not his usual WR1 self when Andrew Luck is the starter.
Week 3 vs. Cleveland Browns
Coming into the season, Hilton averaged five PPR points less per game without Andrew Luck at quarterback vs. when Luck started. In the first two weeks of this season? More struggles without Luck. Hilton has seen only 6.5 targets per game through the first two weeks, averaging 7.8 PPR points per game. That just isn't going to get it done. Sadly, Hilton owners have to keep stashing him, hoping Luck will come back soon. Until then, he's a risky FLEX play, even against the Browns.
