T.Y. Hilton left part of last week's game against the Chiefs and only managed one reception on six targets, a killer for his owners. Hilton said Wednesday, “My body is hurting right now." He didn't practice that day but returned to practice Thursday. If he's active, you start him, but he may not be the target machine he was earlier this season with Donte Moncrief back healthy. Consider Hilton a top-10 WR play against a poor Packers secondary but with a lower floor than usual considering his health.
Week 8 at Kansas City
T.Y. Hilton continues to be a target monster, with double-digit targets in every game but one. And in that game, he had nine targets. He's averaging more than 98 yards per game and has scored in four of seven games. He's a top-five WR this week, with players like Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham on byes. Deploy Hilton with confidence, even with Donte Moncrief back.
Week 7 at Tennessee
T.Y. Hilton is tied for the NFL lead in targets, making him an automatic addition to any fantasy team's starting lineup. In his last two games against Tennessee with Andrew Luck at quarterback, Hilton has averaged five receptions for 99.5 yards. The Titans are top-10 in fantasy points allowed to receivers, but Hilton's target volume makes him a likely top-10 WR this week.
Week 6 at Houston
T.Y. Hilton is 3rd in the NFL in targets. That very much raises his floor week-to-week, and he now has touchdowns in three consecutive games along with 170+ yards in two of his past three. Luck is feeding his favorite target, and Hilton has a fantastic history with Luck against the Texans, including a 223-yard performance in 2014 (Luck didn't face the Texans in 2015). Hilton is a top-10 WR option in Week 6.
Week 5 vs. Chicago
T.Y. Hilton has double-digit targets each week this season. With Donte Moncrief still sidelined, that should continue against Chicago. Lock Hilton into your starting lineups against a beatable Bears secondary on the home turf in Indy.
Week 4 vs. Jacksonville
T.Y. Hilton torched Chargers corner Jason Verrett last week, and all of a sudden, he's a target machine (trailing only Antonio Brown and Mike Evans for the NFL lead in that category). In his last three games against the Jaguars with Andrew Luck at quarterback, here are Hilton's stat lines: 11-155, 5-80, 4-122-1. Like the Boston Tea Party, the Brits won't know what hit 'em this week with Hilton as a top-10 WR option in Week 4.
On paper, T.Y. Hilton has a tough match-up against Chargers emerging star cornerback Jason Verrett; however, Hilton has played 60% of his snaps in the slot, and Verrett doesn't cover the slot. Combine that with Donte Moncrief's injury and Hilton getting 12 more targets through two weeks than any other Colts pass catcher, and Hilton looks like a sneaky good play this week. At worst, he's a WR2 and should be in your lineup.
Week 2 at Denver
Hilton showed up on the injury report Thursday with a knee injury. His status should be monitored. If he plays, you should consider benching him anyway if you have better options. In his last four games against Denver, Hilton has averaged an encouraging 8.5 targets per game, but with just four receptions for 55 yards. Hilton did not score in any of those four games.
Week 1 vs. Detroit
Andrew Luck returns, which is only good news for T.Y. Hilton, who averaged more targets, yards and PPR points per game with Luck under center. His matchup is a good one too, against a Lions defense that was bottom-10 in the league in fantasy points allowed to receivers in 2015. Start Hilton with confidence as a top-10 WR option in Week 1.
Fantasy Upside
Without Andrew Luck for nine games last season, it’s important to take those games out of the equation when deciding what Hilton’s fantasy upside is for 2016. In 2014, Hilton finished as a top-10 fantasy WR (82-1345-7). He’s also not the boom-or-bust deep threat some view Hilton as either, leading the Colts in red zone targets in 2015. Despite all the passing game options in Indianapolis, Hilton has also established himself as a consistent target volume fantasy option, averaging 9.3 targets per game with Luck in 2015. For reference, that would have been top-10 in the NFL over 16 games with Luck. Hilton also had some other factors working against him in 2015, meaning a ceiling matching 2014 production is well within the realm of possibility, perhaps closer to likely.
Fantasy Downside
The downside with Hilton in 2016 is similar to the factor hovering around Luck’s fantasy outlook: the Colts offensive line. After a miserable season protecting quarterbacks, the Colts invested half their draft into the big boys up front. If that doesn’t improve, having time for deep routes to develop for Hilton could be an issue, lowering Hilton’s fantasy ceiling.
Consistent touchdowns could also still be tougher for Hilton, even with Luck, in 2016. Hilton only had one red zone score with Luck in 2016 in seven games, with his other two touchdowns from Luck coming on busted coverages against a historically bad Saints defense. Meanwhile, Luck found Donte Moncrief in the endzone in five of his seven games.
Bottom Line
Hilton’s ADP has fallen from a borderline 2nd round pick in 2015 to a mid-to-late 3rd round pick in 12-team leagues in 2016. That’s not a big drop, but there is opportunity for some value. Hilton is currently the 17th wide receiver off the board in drafts, after names like Demaryius Thomas, Brandon Marshall, Brandin Cooks, Sammy Watkins, and Amari Cooper, all of which we have Hilton ranked ahead of for 2016 in standard scoring. He drops a few spots in PPR leagues but not as severely as others, after posting back-to-back 80+ reception seasons with Luck in 2013 and 2014. He provides the opportunity to draft two WR1s in 2016 in the 1st and 3rd rounds, with a solid RB in the 2nd round, for those that choose to go that route.
