Week 7 vs. Buffalo Bills
T.Y. Hilton (hamstring) has a chance to return Week 7, and with Andrew Luck leading the league in pass attempts and no competition in the rest of the Colts receiving core, Hilton will see a large target share. Hilton will have to beat one of the game's best corners this season though, as Tre'Davious White has been impressive with a top-five coverage rating. Monitor Hilton's status, as he went from a full practice participant Wednesday to limited Thursday. He's no lock to play yet, but if he does, he should be in the mix as a WR2 in Week 7.
Week 4 vs. Houston Texans
The Colts have a slightly above-average implied team total of 24.25 points, but that number has come down throughout the week with sharp action in Vegas on the Texans, despite the majority of bets being laid on the Colts. The sharps certainly feel there will be some negative game script for the Colts passing game. The Texans are ranked just 25th in aFPA to WRs, but Hilton's efficiency has taken a hit with Luck seeing a significant decline in average depth of target. Hilton's targets can't be disputed (double-digits each week), but he's averaging less than 11 yards per reception. His career low is 13.2, with every other year being over 15 yards. For Week 4, he's feeling more like a PPR-only WR2 play, with a lower floor in standard leagues.
Week 3 at Philadelphia Eagles
With Andrew Luck back, T.Y. Hilton is again a target machine (11 each of the past two weeks); however, Luck's worst average depth of target in his career appears to have lowered Hilton's ceiling for the time being. Frank Reich is getting the ball out of the franchise's hands fast to deal with O-Line concerns. The Eagles are 27th in WR PPR points allowed to start the year, after getting roasted by Julio Jones and Bucs WRs. The volume and matchup put Hilton on the WR1 radar for this week. His status must be monitored, though, as Hilton missed practice Wednesday and Thursday with a quad injury.
Week 2 at Washington Redskins
Washington was top-five in aFPA to WRs last season, and the Colts have a low 21-point implied team total for Week 2. Hilton only caught five of his 11 targets in Week 1, as this offense looks to get the ball out of Andrew Luck's hand quickly with depth thin at the two tackle positions. That makes it very difficult for Hilton to run deep routes for chunk plays, especially this week against Josh Norman. He's a very risky WR2 this week who may require garbage time for fantasy production.
Week 1 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are a tough matchup for Hilton (seventh in aFPA to WRs last season), but with Andrew Luck back, Hilton returns to every-week starter status in redraft league fantasy lineups. The heavy targets he has seen with Luck over the course of his career will return, propelling Hilton back to mid-to-high WR2 status this week. It also doesn't hurt that Vegas has set the over/under to a generous 48 points this week, making this game a potential shootout.
Fantasy Upside
T.Y. Hilton's fantasy upside with Andrew Luck at quarterback is undeniable. He has finished 11th and fifth among fantasy WRs in Luck's last two healthy seasons. Few WRs have that kind of upside where Hilton is being drafted this season.
Fantasy Downside
The last four seasons have shown us Hilton's fantasy success is directly tied to whether Andrew Luck plays a full season or not. When he hasn't, Hilton has not returned on investment. How lucky do you feel?
2018 Bottom Line
Andrew Luck has been cleared for the start of training camp. Now everybody just holds their breath, hoping he doesn't suffer another setback in his throwing shoulder. Hilton is being drafted as the WR13 in the third round, on average. That means you're not getting a discount on Hilton in 2018 and hoping Luck stays healthy. Again, how lucky do you feel?
Week 17 vs. Houston Texans
Remember when these two teams were slugging it out for the AFC South crown in recent years? Oh, how the mighty have fallen. The Colts are actually a 5.5-point favorite in this game with a respectable implied team total in Vegas of more than 22 points. Plus, the Texans are dead last in aFPA to WRs. That makes T.Y. Hilton a candidate for a big game. Consider him a high-end WR2 in what is finally a winnable matchup for him to end the season.
Week 16 at Baltimore Ravens
The Colts have the lowest implied team total in Vegas for Week 16 in this Saturday game against the Ravens on the road at 13.5 points. It's more than two full points lower than the next worst team. Plus, the Colts have averaged a brutal 12.6 points per game during their five-game losing streak. T.Y. Hilton has not reached 60 yards during this losing streak. Bench him.
Week 15 vs. Denver Broncos
The Colts played on the road, in a blizzard, and now have a short week to prepare to face the Broncos defense. They also have the sixth-lowest implied team total in Vegas this week with just 19 points. Denver is the best in the league against WRs in aFPA, and Hilton has not scored in his previous four games against this team. It would be wise to find better options, if available, instead of starting him in the fantasy postseason. The upside is capped in Week 15.
Week 14 at Buffalo Bills
The forecast calls for snow in the afternoon and sustained winds of 18 miles per hour. Not exactly what you're looking for if you have a struggling offense like the Colts. If it's hard to pass, it's going to be hard for the receivers to catch. The Bills are also eighth in our aFPA versus WR rankings. The inconsistency of this offense makes Hilton hard to trust as anything more than a FLEX consideration in Week 14.
