Week 12 at Houston Texans
T.Y. Hilton has missed the last three games with a calf injury, but he stands a chance to return this week against the Texans. While it’s scary to trust a player coming off an injury, if he winds up starting, fantasy owners shouldn’t hesitate to use him as a WR2. He has five touchdowns in six games this season and Houston ranks 29th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers this season. Watch that injury report though, as he’s a serious question mark to return this week.
Week 9 at Pittsburgh Steelers
T.Y. Hilton caught only two passes last week in a low-scoring and close victory over the Broncos, but he still had 54 yards. Hilton remains a consistently solid fantasy option in all league formats, however, as the efficiency of Jacoby Brissett has benefitted Hilton greatly. He’s caught 69.6% of the balls thrown his direction and has five touchdowns in six games. He’s clearly the top option in the Colts’ passing game and is arguably the best weapon on offense.
This week, Hilton faces a Steelers defense that ranks 21st in aFPA to opposing wide receivers and struggled to defend against the Dolphins early on Monday night before Miami collapsed in the second half. Expect more targets, more production and a good shot at the end zone this week for Hilton, who should be active in all leagues as a solid WR2 option.
Update: Hilton injured his calf on Wednesday and is set to miss the next three weeks. Be sure to get him out of your lineup.
Week 8 vs. Denver Broncos
T.Y. Hilton has failed to eclipse 100 yards in any game this season, but he’s been a touchdown machine, scoring five times in as many games. Hilton is averaging eight targets per game and continues to be the favorite target of quarterback Jacoby Brissett, giving him a high floor as the focal point of the passing offense.
This week, Hilton has a tough matchup against the Broncos, who rank second in the league in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. He should still get his targets, however, making him a quality WR2 option. Fantasy owners should limit expectations and hope for another touchdown from him, but he should be active in all leagues.
Week 7 vs. Houston Texans
T.Y. Hilton was held to only 37 yards on four receptions against the Chiefs before the bye last week, but he caught only four balls thrown his way and he’s been targeted an average of 7.25 times per game in his four starts this season. Hilton is clearly the number one option in the Colts’ passing attack, and while he hasn’t eclipsed 100 receiving yards in a game yet this year, he’s found the end zone four times. He should be a consistent fantasy option for any week he’s active.
This week is especially enticing for Hilton, as he faces a Texans’ defense that ranks 25th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers and just gave up a pair of touchdown to Tyreek Hill last week. The Colts are unlikely to make this a ground-control game against a Texans offense that ranks eighth in points scored per game, so Hilton should be used early and often. He’s a must-start and we have him ranked as a WR1 in all leagues.
Week 5 at Kansas City Chiefs
T.Y. Hilton missed last week with an injury and he’s unlikely to go again this week. If he does wind up on the active list, however, he’s worth considering against the Chiefs. Kansas City allowed good numbers to Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones last week – including two touchdowns to the former – and if the Chiefs get up early, the Colts are going to have to throw the ball. Make sure you have a backup option, however, as Hilton is unlikely to suit up.
Update: Hilton is supposed to be active. It's always risky using a guy who is a late-call injury-wise, but this is a good matchup and Hilton should be worth the risk overall. Get him in your lineup in a game that could be a shootout.
Week 4 vs. Oakland Raiders
T.Y. Hilton caught his fourth touchdown in three games last week again the Falcons, but he aggravated his quad injury and is unlikely to play. Fantasy owners should take a cautious approach with him, but if he surprises everyone by being active this week, he has a nice matchup against the Raiders and should be active in most leagues. Keep a close eye on the inactive report and if there’s any question, leave him out of your lineup.
Week 3 vs. Atlanta Falcons
T.Y. Hilton only had 43 yards on four catches last week against the Titans, but he caught a touchdown and led the team with six targets. He’s had 15 targets so far through two games, which is more than double the team’s second-highest targeted player – Eric Ebron with seven – making it clear he’s the team’s top option in the passing game. Hilton also leads the team with three touchdowns and has gained 32 yards in the red zone. He’s not just a long-ball threat.
This week, Hilton has high upside against a Falcons defense that was torched by Nelson Agholor last week. The Falcons did well against the Vikings’ receivers in Week 1, but that may have been fool’s gold in a game where Minnesota dominated with the ground game. Hilton should get plenty of targets and plenty of red-zone work once again, making him a high-floor option and borderline WR1 in all league formats.
Week 2 at Tennessee Titans
T.Y. Hilton didn’t miss Andrew Luck in Week 1 against the Chargers, catching eight of nine balls thrown his way for 87 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Jacoby Brissett looked comfortable leading the offense, and Hilton benefited. He should continue to be Brissett’s favorite target in what could be a sneaky-good offense loaded with talent upfront and in the run game.
This week, Hilton faces a tough Titans defense that held Odell Beckham Jr. to 71 yards on seven catches last week, but he has a high floor as the primary target in the Colts’ passing game and should still be active in all league formats. We have him ranked as a steady WR2 option, and his big-play ability gives him additional upside every week.
Week 1 at Los Angeles Chargers
T.Y. Hilton will no doubt be considered riskier with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback now that Andrew Luck retired, but he should still be productive. While not great numbers, he did manage 57 catches, 966 yards and four touchdowns with Brissett in 2017 on a far-inferior team with a completely different coaching staff and philosophy. It’s likely his second season with Brissett will be more prolific.
Hilton has a tough matchup to start the season. The Chargers allowed the fifth-least fantasy points to opposing wide receivers last year and Hilton may struggle in his first game out of the gate. We have him ranked as a borderline WR2, which makes him worth starting in most leagues, but temper your expectations for him against a good defense.
Fantasy Upside
I love T.Y. Hilton. I’ve always loved T.Y. Hilton. Every year, he’s undervalued. Yet, every year, he produces. He’s had at least 1,000 yards in six of the past seven years, and the one season he was under was 2017, when he had 966 yards without Andrew Luck behind center. Last year, with Luck back at full strength, Hilton had 1,270 yards and six touchdowns on 76 receptions. He’s been steady throughout his entire career and has racked up at least 90 targets in every season. In a prolific Colts offense entering year two of the Frank Reich era, Hilton should continue to thrive.
Fantasy Downside
At only 5-foot-10, 183 pounds, Hilton doesn’t look the part of a prototype WR1, and his slender frame could potentially become a durability issue. Although he’s missed only four games in his career, two of those were last season and he had a banged-up ankle to close out the year. Hilton also will have a little more competition for targets this season with rookie Parris Campbell and veteran free agent Devin Funchess added to the roster. Plus, Jack Doyle was in-and-out of the lineup last season and could get more targets if he can stay on the field. Hilton has never been a big target in the end zone and has never scored more than seven touchdowns in a season.
2019 Bottom Line
Barring injury, pencil Hilton in for another 1,200 yards and six touchdowns at least. Only the Steelers attempted more passes than the Colts last year, so there should be plenty of balls to go around. Hilton has a built-in rapport with Luck and he’s right in his prime at 29 years old. He’s a high-floor option in the late-fourth round of fantasy drafts and should be well worth his ADP.
