Week 5 at Cleveland Browns
T.Y. Hilton hasn’t had a good start to the season, punctuated by just three catches and 29 yards on five targets last week against the Bears. It was his second game of the year under 30 yards and the most yards he’s had is 53. This might be the last week Hilton is worth considering as a starter. Cleveland ranks 30th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers, giving Hilton a good chance to rebound in a nice matchup. If he can’t do it this week, he becomes a matchup-based backup on most rosters. We have him ranked as a low-end WR3 with upside this week.
Week 4 at Chicago Bears
T.Y. Hilton had three catches for 52 yards last week. The Colts dominated the Jets, including scoring 14 points defensively, limiting the need to throw the ball. Rivers had just 21 pass attempts. Hilton was limited to just three targets, which is concerning, but he should still be the top receiver in this offense, particularly with both Parris Campbell and Michael Pittman hurt.
This week, Hilton has a tough matchup against a Chicago Bears defense that ranks third in the league in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. While the Colts should throw a little more this week than last, it’s hard to recommend him as anything more than a low-end WR3 option in most leagues, due to the matchup.
Week 3 vs. New York Jets
T.Y. Hilton hasn’t had a great start to the season with just 81 yards through two games. However, he’s been targeted 14 times, including nine times in Week 1, and last week got 20% of Philip Rivers’ pass attempts sent his way. Hilton might be done flirting with WR1 numbers on a weekly basis, but he still has the ability to be a WR2 option.
Careful with him this week against the Jets. While it’s a great matchup against a terrible defense, we might see something similar to last week where the Colts get up early and run the ball, limiting targets for everyone. Downgrade Hilton to WR3/Flex territory for the time being.
Week 2 vs. Minnesota Vikings
T.Y. Hilton had nine targets last week against the Jaguars, but he was held to just four catches and 53 yards. The targets are the key element to look at however, tied for the team-high and showing a decent rapport with new quarterback Philip Rivers. The Colts will look to rebound from a close loss to a division rival as they face the Vikings this week, another team reeling from getting trounced by the Packers in Week 1.
The Vikings really struggled in the secondary, as Green Bay receivers scored four touchdowns against them last week, and they often looked out of position. If that continues into Week 2, then Hilton should benefit. We have him ranked as a fringe WR2/WR3 option this week and he should be active in most leagues.
Week 1 at Jacksonville Jaguars
T.Y. Hilton was hurt last year and missed six games, limiting him to just 501 yards and five touchdowns on 45 receptions. Hilton has been pretty steady throughout his career though, particularly when he’s had a good quarterback to work with. His two worst seasons have come with Jacoby Brissett throwing the ball, so the addition of Philip Rivers has to be considered a good thing for him.
He has a tough start to the season on paper, as the Jaguars were ninth in the league in aFPA to opposing wide receivers last year. However, they’ll have two new cornerbacks this season and lost two of their best defensive linemen over the offseason as well. This defense could be considerably worse, and Hilton should benefit in Week 1. We have him as a low-end WR2 in most leagues this week, and fantasy owners should have him active while he’s healthy.
Fantasy Upside
T.Y. Hilton has always been one of my favorite underrated receivers. All he does is churn out 1,000-plus yard seasons year in and year out, despite getting very little recognition as the WR1 he is. He’s had at least 1,000 yards in five of his eight seasons and averages 4.7 receptions, 72.9 yards and 0.38 touchdowns per game over the course of his career. Until injuries cost him six games last year, he’s had at least 100 targets in every season except his rookie year. Hilton should benefit from the addition of quarterback Philip Rivers and if he doesn’t have the same injury issues he had in 2019, he should be a lock for over 100 targets once again. He was on pace for 109 targets last year during the 10 games he played in.
Fantasy Downside
Missing six games last year and two the year before after missing just one throughout his previous six years is concerning for a wide receiver who will turn 31 in November. I wouldn’t say Hilton is injury prone or even in a definite decline, but it’s at least possible he’s past the apex of his career. Hilton has always been undersized at 5-foot-10, 183 lbs and the hits he takes averaging 69 receptions per season might be taking its toll. Hilton has also never scored more than seven touchdowns in a season, so that limits his fantasy upside.
2020 Bottom Line
Hilton’s production in 2020 is likely tied to how much of an improvement Rivers ends up being over the starter from last year, Jacoby Brissett. Rivers is definitely more accomplished, but he looked rough last season and is now 38 years old. Still, even if Rivers is right on par with what Brissett did last year and Hilton produces at the same clip he did during his 10 games of action, he’ll still be good for a solid floor of 72 catches and 802 yards. However, if he’s healthy and Rivers is any kind of an upgrade, Hilton should sniff WR1 territory. We have him ranked as a WR2 in our rankings and he’s available in the late-fifth round, so he’s solid value for fantasy owners looking for some steady veteran production.
Week 17 at Jacksonville Jaguars
T.Y. Hilton has been back in action the past couple of weeks, but he’s really struggled to make much of an impact. Over the past two games combined, he has just 51 yards on seven catches. Hilton has always been super reliable, but with the Colts’ passing game struggling in general and him possible still not 100% healthy, it’s risky to bank on him.
The Jaguars actually rank sixth in aFPA to opposing wide receivers this season, despite a lackluster showing against the Falcons last week, allowing Julio Jones to catch 10 balls for 166 yards. Hilton is a great receiver, but he’s struggled since coming back from injury, making it hard to trust him in what seems like basically a lost season him and the Colts’ passing offense. We have him as a WR3 option this week and he should only be trusted in deep leagues given his recent struggles.
Week 16 vs. Carolina Panthers
T.Y. Hilton looked a little more like himself running routes against the Saints last week, despite struggling to produce. He caught just four passes for 25 yards, although he led the team with nine targets. Hilton will need to show he’s back in game shape in order to be trusted in most fantasy leagues, but desperate owners might be optimistic about his chances against the Panthers, who rank 24th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers this season. He’s risky, but he might pay off in deep leagues as a low-end WR3 option.
Week 14 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
T.Y. Hilton has been hurt for weeks now, and even though he tried to come back a couple of games ago, he clearly wasn’t 100%. He has a phenomenal matchup against the Buccaneers this week – dead last in aFPA to opposing wide receivers this year – but it’s hard to trust that he won’t just be a decoy again or that he’ll be able to gain separation when playing hurt. He may or may not play this week, but even if he’s active, fantasy owners should be cautious using him.
Week 13 vs. Tennessee Titans
T.Y. Hilton returned to action last week against the Texans and posted very disappointing numbers, catching just three of the six balls thrown his way for a paltry 18 yards. Hilton said he felt some tightening up in his calf and his status this week against the Titans is in question. Even if he’s active, fantasy owners should be wary of using him after last week and perhaps take a wait-and-see approach until he shows he’s back to his normal self. The Titans rank 14th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers and just held D.J. Chark in check last week, so this isn’t exactly a great matchup for him anyway.
Update: With Hilton out, make sure he's out of your lineup.
