Week 2 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Coming into the season, Hilton averaged five PPR points less per game without Andrew Luck at quarterback vs. when Luck started. In Week 1? Just 8.7 PPR points. That's not going to get it done, especially in a matchup with shutdown corner Patrick Peterson looming. Consider Hilton a low-end FLEX option, but until Luck comes back, he's not a WR1 or WR2.
Week 1 at Los Angeles Rams
In one game without Andrew Luck last season, T.Y. Hilton caught just 3 passes for 54 yards against Pittsburgh. Looking at a larger sample from 2015, Hilton averaged 12.0 PPR fantasy points per game without Luck. Compare that to the 17 PPR points per game Hilton averaged in 2016. A 12.0 PPR average would have knocked Hilton out of the top-40 wide receivers last season. For these reasons, expectations have to be put in check for Hilton Week 1. He moves down from a top-12 wide reciver to a borderline WR2 against the Rams.
Fantasy Upside
T.Y. Hilton finished as the fantasy WR5 last season. His 17.0 PPR points per game were good enough for seventh at the position. His 155 targets last season were fourth in the NFL, which should stabilize his floor again in 2017. Hilton also still averaged 9 targets per game last year when Donte Moncrief was healthy.
Fantasy Downside
Andrew Luck's early season availability is in question, which would hurt Hilton for the first couple of weeks, judging by Hilton's poor 2015 fantasy performance without his quarterback. Hilton also has never had high touchdown upside, with a career-high seven in 2014. Hilton's targets weren't affected when Moncrief was healthy last year, but his fantasy points sure were. Hilton averaged 19.8 PPR fantasy points per game when Moncrief was out but only 14.8 when Moncrief played. That was WR15 in those weeks for Hilton.
2017 Bottom Line
Hilton's production in games Moncrief played has to be considered his floor if Luck is healthy. That means there is some risk with his ADP as the eighth WR off the board. But his target share paired with one of the best quarterbacks in the game should not be overlooked. Just don't expect a top-3 WR finish for Hilton.
Week 17 at Jacksonville
The Colts have all said they are playing to win in Week 17, even if it is a meaningless game, as they are already eliminated from playoff contention. That's good news for those wanting to start T.Y. Hilton this week, a high-end WR1 at Jacksonville. Hilton posted his sixth 100-yard game last week. In his last four games against the Jags, he's averaged more than 90 yards and scored in two of those contests. Start him.
Week 16 at Oakland
Hilton is locked in as a WR1 for fantasy championships and makes for a nice play against the Raiders in DFS as well. Oakland has struggled with smaller, quicker wideouts this season (Cooks 7-186-2, Ginn 4-115-1 are two examples). Despite a touch match-up last week against Minnesota's stout secondary, Hilton should be much more involved in Week 16.
Week 15 at Minnesota
From 4for4's Chris Raybon: "T.Y. Hilton is averaging 10.6 targets, 7.0 receptions, 113.8 yards and 0.8 TDs in 5 games without Donte Moncrief." Moncrief is out for Week 15, which should lead to another high volume game against the Vikings. The problem is the Vikings secondary is very good. Minnesota is top-10 in fantasy points allowed to receivers, but has allowed a touchdown to wideouts in three straight weeks.
It's the fantasy playoffs. You aren't benching T.Y. Hilton, who has been a borderline top-5 receiver in fantasy all season.
Week 14 vs. Houston
From 4for4's Chris Raybon: Some will see Houston is fourth versus WRs and hesitate, but the Texans have allowed eight catches and a TD to a WR in three of their last four games. In four games as a home favorite this season, Hilton is averaging 130.3 receiving and and 0.75 TDs. Hilton, who has now joined Antonio Brown as the only WRs in the NFL with 1,000 yards in four straight seasons, is locked in as a top-10 WR option in Week 14.
Week 13 at New York Jets
T.Y. Hilton did not practice Thursday with a back injury. That is something to monitor through Saturday, with the Colts playing Monday night. As of right now, he is a top-12 WR for Week 13 against a Jets secondary that has allowed 12 touchdowns to opposing receivers this season.
Week 12 vs. Pittsburgh
T.Y. Hilton must face a Steelers defense that is sixth in adjusted fantasy points allowed to receivers, and he must face Pittsburgh without Andrew Luck. Not good. Hilton has averaged 5.7-88.8 this season. Without Andrew Luck last year, Hilton's numbers dropped to 4.2-64.0. Hilton drops into WR2 territory this week, and more concerning, his floor is even lower than that Week 12.
Week 11 vs. Tennessee
Even in games Donte Moncrief has been active, Hilton is still averaging more than nine targets per game from Andrew Luck. This week he gets a rematch against the Titans, a team he posted 7-133-1 against in Week 7. Fire up Hilton as a dependable WR1 in Week 11.
